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May 27, 2010

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Asian growth drives recovery but instability lingers: OECD


ECONOMIC recovery in the world's richest countries is accelerating thanks to a "substantial" rebound in trade and growth in Asia, but Europe's debt crisis proves that bailouts worth trillions of dollars have yet to stabilize the globe, a leading agency said yesterday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a watchdog for 31 of the most developed economies, said that serious risks including Europe's sovereign debt crisis and a possible boom-bust scenario in emerging markets such as Brazil, India and China still threaten what it calls a "relatively auspicious" economic environment.

"The period of significant financial instability that began in August 2007 is not yet over," the OECD warned in its latest biannual Economic Outlook.

The Paris-based group also raised its forecasts for economic growth in its member countries - which include the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom - to 2.7 percent this year, up from its forecast of 1.9 percent last November.

The OECD lifted its forecasts for Japan, the US and the eurozone countries, but Japan and the US are still expected to outpace Europe, it said.

The OECD publishes its economic outlook twice a year, although it updated some 2010 forecasts in an interim assessment published in April.

Europe's response to its sovereign debt crisis - the latest chapter in the global financial and economic turmoil that began three years ago - has been "prompt and massive," the OECD said, but has failed to settle the currency bloc's "underlying weaknesses."

The OECD called for "bolder measures" - up to and including an effective fiscal union - among eurozone countries to "dissipate doubts about the long-term viability" of the EU.

"Bolder measures need to be taken to ensure fiscal discipline, along a continuum that ranges from stronger surveillance and more effective sanctions for noncompliance, to external auditing of national budgets all the way to de facto fiscal union," the OECD said.

The US economy has been boosted by stimulus measures, improving financial conditions, demand from the fast-growing non-OECD economies of Asia, especially China, and the stabilization of the housing market. The OECD predicted that unemployment has peaked, but that labor market would remain depressed this year.

The OECD predicts the US economy will grow at 3.2 percent in 2010, up from an earlier forecast of 2.5 percent.




 

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