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Bank: China No. 1 by 2020
By Zhang Fengming |
November 16, 2010, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy by 2020, Standard Chartered said in a report yesterday.
Also yesterday, Japan's government said output in China - the largest maker of mobile phones, computers and vehicles - surpassed Japan for the second straight quarter in the three months through September.
China's economy will be twice as big as the US by 2030 and account for 24 percent of global economic output, up from 9 percent now, Standard Chartered Bank economists said in the report.
China's economy is expected to expand to US$24.6 trillion in a decade, surpassing the US's US$23.3 trillion.
"We believe that the world is in a 'super-cycle' of sustained high growth," economists led by Gerard Lyons said in a 152-page report yesterday. "The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous."
The bank defines a super-cycle as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization, technological innovation and characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.
"The super-cycle is much more than a China story," the report said.
India, another emerging Asian giant, will surpass Japan to be the world's third-biggest economy in the next decade, the report said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said earlier that it estimates China will overtake the US by 2027.
The Chinese economy is flexing its muscle in the new millennium, overtaking Britain as the fourth largest economy in 2005 and taking third place from Germany in 2007.
Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping said in a speech in Singapore yesterday that China is set to become the world's second-largest economy this year.
China has expanded by an average 10.3 percent a year during the past decade compared with an average 1.8 percent in the US.
Standard Chartered estimates China's growth will slow to an annual 8 percent pace by the middle of the decade, easing to 5 percent from 2027 to 2030.
The US economy is expected to grow at a below-consensus 1.9 percent in 2011 and then at its trend growth of 2.5 percent to 2030.
China also has its growing pains. The economy is "unbalanced" and faces considerable risks, including asset bubbles, overcapacity and rising bad loans, the report said.
Also yesterday, Japan's government said output in China - the largest maker of mobile phones, computers and vehicles - surpassed Japan for the second straight quarter in the three months through September.
China's economy will be twice as big as the US by 2030 and account for 24 percent of global economic output, up from 9 percent now, Standard Chartered Bank economists said in the report.
China's economy is expected to expand to US$24.6 trillion in a decade, surpassing the US's US$23.3 trillion.
"We believe that the world is in a 'super-cycle' of sustained high growth," economists led by Gerard Lyons said in a 152-page report yesterday. "The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous."
The bank defines a super-cycle as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization, technological innovation and characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.
"The super-cycle is much more than a China story," the report said.
India, another emerging Asian giant, will surpass Japan to be the world's third-biggest economy in the next decade, the report said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said earlier that it estimates China will overtake the US by 2027.
The Chinese economy is flexing its muscle in the new millennium, overtaking Britain as the fourth largest economy in 2005 and taking third place from Germany in 2007.
Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping said in a speech in Singapore yesterday that China is set to become the world's second-largest economy this year.
China has expanded by an average 10.3 percent a year during the past decade compared with an average 1.8 percent in the US.
Standard Chartered estimates China's growth will slow to an annual 8 percent pace by the middle of the decade, easing to 5 percent from 2027 to 2030.
The US economy is expected to grow at a below-consensus 1.9 percent in 2011 and then at its trend growth of 2.5 percent to 2030.
China also has its growing pains. The economy is "unbalanced" and faces considerable risks, including asset bubbles, overcapacity and rising bad loans, the report said.
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