Bank lowers forecast of China's growth for 2012
By Wang Yanlin |
July 13, 2012, Friday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
The Asian Development Bank yesterday lowered its projection of China's 2012 economic growth for the second time in three months, citing weak growth in Europe and the United States.
China's gross domestic product is estimated to expand 8.2 percent from a year earlier in 2012, compared with an April forecast of 8.5 percent, the Manila-based bank said in its Asian Development Outlook Supplement.
The bank also cut overall growth estimates for developing Asia this year to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent, given underperforming emerging markets which included China and India.
"Economic growth in developing Asia moderated during the first half of 2012 as slower growth in the US and the euro area reduced demand for the region's exports," the bank said.
"Worries over the economic strength of important developing economies have also emerged recently. Latest data from China and India suggest the region's growth will slow in the second half of this year," the bank added.
China's National Bureau of Statistics is to release the second-quarter economic growth figure today. Some analysts forecast it will ease further to around 7.5 percent after it reached a nearly three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first three months.
The bank said China's growth was also slowing because it was unwinding a policy stimulus implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis.
"However, authorities have taken due measures in an attempt to prevent a further slowdown by easing fiscal and monetary policies," the bank said. With measures filtering through which may be able to boost consumption, increase expenditure in education and health care, and speed up large infrastructure projects, the bank said China's growth was likely to pick up in the second half. It estimated China's growth may accelerate to 8.5 percent next year.
China is taking a cautious approach to stimulus measures, mindful of the painful hangover of inflation and debt from its 4 trillion yuan (US$634 billion) stimulus in 2008.
Last week, interest rates were cut for the second time in a month to lower borrowing costs for business and investment in the latest move to spur growth.
Before that, China had reduced the reserve requirements three times, expanded private investment into previously state-dominated fields, and accelerated tax reform to stimulate growth.
On Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao said that stabilizing economic growth was the most pressing task facing China.
The bank's latest projection is still higher than China's target of economic growth above 7.5 percent this year.
The bank said weaker global demand was helping ease international oil and food prices, which helps reducing inflationary pressures in developing Asia.
It forecast that inflation rate growth in the region would slow to around 4.4 percent this year.
China's gross domestic product is estimated to expand 8.2 percent from a year earlier in 2012, compared with an April forecast of 8.5 percent, the Manila-based bank said in its Asian Development Outlook Supplement.
The bank also cut overall growth estimates for developing Asia this year to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent, given underperforming emerging markets which included China and India.
"Economic growth in developing Asia moderated during the first half of 2012 as slower growth in the US and the euro area reduced demand for the region's exports," the bank said.
"Worries over the economic strength of important developing economies have also emerged recently. Latest data from China and India suggest the region's growth will slow in the second half of this year," the bank added.
China's National Bureau of Statistics is to release the second-quarter economic growth figure today. Some analysts forecast it will ease further to around 7.5 percent after it reached a nearly three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first three months.
The bank said China's growth was also slowing because it was unwinding a policy stimulus implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis.
"However, authorities have taken due measures in an attempt to prevent a further slowdown by easing fiscal and monetary policies," the bank said. With measures filtering through which may be able to boost consumption, increase expenditure in education and health care, and speed up large infrastructure projects, the bank said China's growth was likely to pick up in the second half. It estimated China's growth may accelerate to 8.5 percent next year.
China is taking a cautious approach to stimulus measures, mindful of the painful hangover of inflation and debt from its 4 trillion yuan (US$634 billion) stimulus in 2008.
Last week, interest rates were cut for the second time in a month to lower borrowing costs for business and investment in the latest move to spur growth.
Before that, China had reduced the reserve requirements three times, expanded private investment into previously state-dominated fields, and accelerated tax reform to stimulate growth.
On Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao said that stabilizing economic growth was the most pressing task facing China.
The bank's latest projection is still higher than China's target of economic growth above 7.5 percent this year.
The bank said weaker global demand was helping ease international oil and food prices, which helps reducing inflationary pressures in developing Asia.
It forecast that inflation rate growth in the region would slow to around 4.4 percent this year.
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