Big improvement in China's foreign trade
By Wang Yanlin |
October 14, 2012, Sunday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S trade rebounded strongly in September, raising hopes of recovering demand at home and abroad that may lead to a soft landing in the fourth quarter.
Exports grew 9.9 percent from a year earlier to US$186.3 billion last month, up from the increase of 2.7 percent in August and surprising the market by a large margin, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports rose 2.4 percent to US$158.7 billion as well, reversing the fall of 2.6 percent a month earlier.
They left a trade surplus of US$27.6 billion in September, compared with US$26.6 in August.
"Export growth rebounded strongly last month, beating market expectation and consistent with the rising port throughput data in major Chinese ports," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ).
"Better-than-expected exports were due to a combination of factors, such as better Christmas orders from the United States, a low base effect, and the broadening of government's export tax rebate policies," he added.
Shipments to the US picked up to 5.5 percent in September from 3 percent a month earlier, while exports to the European Union continued to register negative growth of 10.7 percent, but better than the drop of 12.7 percent in the prior month.
The rebound of imports was in line with market consensus and indicated the domestic demand has shown signs of improvement, said Xue Jun, an analyst with CITIC Securities Co.
On a volume basis, imports of crude oil, iron ore and soybean all gained strongly from the previous month, but purchases from Australia declined sharply by 18 percent, largely due to a slump in iron ore prices, Xue said.
In the first three quarters, China's trade expanded 6.2 percent to US$2.84 trillion, with a trade surplus of US$148.3 billion, the Customs data showed. The trade growth was still short of the government goal of 10 percent this year.
"It may be very hard to fulfil the target, however, the improving trade performance indicates stabilizing demand at home and abroad that may help China achieve a soft landing in the fourth quarter," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co.
"The government released some supportive measures last month to assist trade, which may lead to better trade growth in the near future," Li said.
The State Council, China's Cabinet, announced a slew of policies including more timely payment of export tax rebates, more credit insurance, less fees and better Customs services at the beginning of last month.
ANZ's Zhou also said rebounding trade data, together with fast policy implementation, suggested that a moderate economic upturn could be expected in the following quarters, and China's fourth-quarter growth will see a modest cyclical rebound.
Shanghai's trade rose 1.1 percent on an annual basis to US$327.9 billion in the first three quarters, third in value after the southern Guangdong Province and the neighboring Jiangsu Provinces.
Exports grew 9.9 percent from a year earlier to US$186.3 billion last month, up from the increase of 2.7 percent in August and surprising the market by a large margin, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports rose 2.4 percent to US$158.7 billion as well, reversing the fall of 2.6 percent a month earlier.
They left a trade surplus of US$27.6 billion in September, compared with US$26.6 in August.
"Export growth rebounded strongly last month, beating market expectation and consistent with the rising port throughput data in major Chinese ports," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ).
"Better-than-expected exports were due to a combination of factors, such as better Christmas orders from the United States, a low base effect, and the broadening of government's export tax rebate policies," he added.
Shipments to the US picked up to 5.5 percent in September from 3 percent a month earlier, while exports to the European Union continued to register negative growth of 10.7 percent, but better than the drop of 12.7 percent in the prior month.
The rebound of imports was in line with market consensus and indicated the domestic demand has shown signs of improvement, said Xue Jun, an analyst with CITIC Securities Co.
On a volume basis, imports of crude oil, iron ore and soybean all gained strongly from the previous month, but purchases from Australia declined sharply by 18 percent, largely due to a slump in iron ore prices, Xue said.
In the first three quarters, China's trade expanded 6.2 percent to US$2.84 trillion, with a trade surplus of US$148.3 billion, the Customs data showed. The trade growth was still short of the government goal of 10 percent this year.
"It may be very hard to fulfil the target, however, the improving trade performance indicates stabilizing demand at home and abroad that may help China achieve a soft landing in the fourth quarter," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co.
"The government released some supportive measures last month to assist trade, which may lead to better trade growth in the near future," Li said.
The State Council, China's Cabinet, announced a slew of policies including more timely payment of export tax rebates, more credit insurance, less fees and better Customs services at the beginning of last month.
ANZ's Zhou also said rebounding trade data, together with fast policy implementation, suggested that a moderate economic upturn could be expected in the following quarters, and China's fourth-quarter growth will see a modest cyclical rebound.
Shanghai's trade rose 1.1 percent on an annual basis to US$327.9 billion in the first three quarters, third in value after the southern Guangdong Province and the neighboring Jiangsu Provinces.
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