CASS sees GDP growth below target
Print Edition
CHINA’S economy may grow 7.4 percent this year, lower than the official target of 7.5 percent, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in a report yesterday.
The government think tank’s forecast was more pessimistic than the upward revision of China’s growth by the International Monetary Fund to 7.5 percent on Monday, up 0.3 percentage points from the earlier estimate in October.
The CASS said in the report that China’s expansion will continue to be powered by investment while the growth momentum will be stable in the near to middle term.
“Curtailed by excessive production capacity and the risk of a collapse of local government debt, China’s fixed-asset investment growth will slow,” the report said.
“But it will remain a major force for development because consumption, though it may expand steadily, won’t catch up to be the main driver any time soon.”
The report also said China should pay more attention to the quality of investment.
“Funds should be diverted into forward-looking sectors such as infrastructure construction that helps consumption, like education, culture and healthcare, and sectors that can accelerate technological advancement especially in environment protection,” it said.
The report also noted net exports may shrink further this year due to global uncertainties.
China’s gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the slowest in 18 months. The GDP rose 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
The slowdown was caused by the government’s economic restructuring and industrial upgrading for a sustainable growth as well as weak worldwide demand, analysts said earlier.
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