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Change to way quarterly GDP data calculated
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CHINA’S statistics bureau said yesterday that it has changed the way quarterly gross domestic product data are calculated, a move it calls a step to adopt international standards and improve the accuracy of Chinese numbers.
The move by the National Bureau of Statistics comes after China said in July its annual growth rate in the second quarter was 7 percent, the same as in the January-March quarter. Many economists believe the April-June pace was lower.
The combined economic output of China’s provinces has exceeded that of the national level compiled by the bureau, raising suspicion that some growth-obsessed local officials have cooked the books.
Now, China is calculating GDP based on economic activity of each quarter to make the data “more accurate in measuring the seasonal economic activity and more sensitive in capturing information on short-term fluctuations,” the bureau said.
Previously, China’s quarterly GDP data, in terms of value and growth rates, were derived from cumulated figures rather than economic activity of that particular quarter, it said.
The new methodology — in line with that of major developed countries — will pave the way for China to adopt the International Monetary Fund’s Special Data Dissemination Standard in calculating GDP, it said.
The bureau, which has revised some historical quarterly GDP figures for 2014 and prior years retrospectively, said it will publish third-quarter GDP data, due out on October 19, based on the new methodology.
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