China GDP set to ease in next two years
Print Edition
CHINA’S economic growth may ease to 6.78 percent next year and 6.51 percent in 2017 from 6.9 percent this year, according to the World Economic Outlook released yesterday by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
The country’s exports may stabilize next year and consumption will improve, the academy said. But fixed-asset investment will weaken further on lower corporate and property investment.
“Different sectors may present starkly different performances, and there will be variations based on external conditions like global commodity prices, geographical politics and China’s relations with its core trading partners,” said Quan Heng, deputy director of the World Economy Research Center under the academy whose team compiled the report.
The report said China may again be pressured into cutting manufacturing overcapacity next year along with the economic restructuring.
China may cut the target for economic growth next year to 6.5 percent from around 7 percent this year, economists predicted.
“China’s economy is increasingly intertwined with the conditions of global demand,” Quan said, adding that the world economy may recover feebly in 2016 with performances varying in some regions.
The global economy is seen to grow 3.24 percent next year and 3.43 percent in 2017 after expanding 3 percent this year, the report said.
Emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia and those in Central Europe may see economies worsen but South Africa, India and Mexico will be economically positive, the report said. Developed nations, the US in particular, may rebound moderately.
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