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China May economic data to show signs of recovery, economists say
CHINA'S economic data for April may show some improvement with continued policy support and less seasonal distortions, analysts said before the release of the data starting this week.
"We expect April's data to give signs of a tentative stabilization," said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS.
"Industrial activity may grow steadier after the Chinese New Year holiday, and property sales could show the first annual growth in one year and a half after the country relaxed restrictions on the purchase of homes," Wang said.
She expected industrial production will expand 6.4 percent from a year earlier in April, picking up from the pace of 5.6 percent in March.
Meanwhile, the deflationary pressure may reduce a bit as the Consumer Price index, the main gauge of inflation, is forecast to rise 1.6 percent, up from 1.4 percent a month earlier, Wang said.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, predicted industrial production may gain 6 percent in the month while consumer prices could add 1.8 percent, similar to what Wang projected.
"One bright spot is that exports will return to grow and imports will improve as well, helping to stabilize the whole economy," Lian said.
China's economic growth moderated to 7 percent in the first three months, the weakest quarterly expansion in six years and prompting the central bank to take the surprising policy-easing actions including cuts of both interest rate and reserve requirement ratio in the past two months.
"China's authorities are becoming more concerned about the economic downturn and they call for more forceful policy support," Wang said. "We expect more powerful fiscal support to bolster investment, smoother distribution channels of funds, and healthier development in the property sector," Wang said.
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