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China inflation may hit a 2-year low in June
By Wang Yanlin |
July 4, 2012, Wednesday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S inflation rate is likely to fall below 3 percent for the first time in two years in June, creating more room for easing policies, analysts say.
They predict China's economy can bottom out in the third quarter as the current stimulus measures filter through, and it is possible for policy makers to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio again this month to push the growth.
The June's economic data, including the second-quarter gross domestic product, inflation and industrial production, will be released next week. They are closely watched by the markets to measure the current conditions in the world's second-largest economy.
"We are probably at the bottom of a U-shaped growth model," says Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. "The government is likely to unleash another set of mild policies to sustain growth, and the recovery is likely to be mild, too."
More optimistic than other economists, Lu predicts that China's June inflation rate may ease to 2.2 percent, the lowest in three years. Other predictions range from 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent.
Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, expanded 3 percent from a year earlier in May, the slowest in 23 months thanks mostly to cheaper food.
"The same reason will enable inflation to ease more in June," Lu says, noting that the non-food sector may also report lower prices in June.
They predict China's economy can bottom out in the third quarter as the current stimulus measures filter through, and it is possible for policy makers to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio again this month to push the growth.
The June's economic data, including the second-quarter gross domestic product, inflation and industrial production, will be released next week. They are closely watched by the markets to measure the current conditions in the world's second-largest economy.
"We are probably at the bottom of a U-shaped growth model," says Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. "The government is likely to unleash another set of mild policies to sustain growth, and the recovery is likely to be mild, too."
More optimistic than other economists, Lu predicts that China's June inflation rate may ease to 2.2 percent, the lowest in three years. Other predictions range from 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent.
Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, expanded 3 percent from a year earlier in May, the slowest in 23 months thanks mostly to cheaper food.
"The same reason will enable inflation to ease more in June," Lu says, noting that the non-food sector may also report lower prices in June.
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