Related News
China to surpass US as No.1 economy by 2020, report says
By Zhang Fengming |
November 15, 2010, Monday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2020 on its fast expansion, Standard Chartered said in a report today.
Also today, Japan's government said that output in China, the largest maker of mobile phones, computers and vehicles, surpassed Japan for the second straight quarter in the three months through September.
China's economy will be twice as big as that of the US by 2030 to account for 24 percent of global economic output, up from 9 percent, Standard Chartered Bank economists said in a report.
China's economy is expected to expand to US$24.6 trillion in a decade, surpassing the US's US$23.3 trillion by then.
"We believe that the world is in a 'super-cycle' of sustained high growth," economists led by Gerard Lyons said in the 152-page report. "The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous."
The bank defines a super-cycle as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization, technological innovation and characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.
"The super-cycle is much more than a China story," the report said.
Another emerging Asian might India will surpass Japan to be the third-biggest economy in the next decade, said the report.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said earlier that it estimates China will overtake the US by 2027.
The Chinese economy is flexing its muscle in the new millennium, overtaking Britain as the fourth largest economy in 2005 and taking its third place from Germany in 2007.
China has expanded by an average 10.3 percent a year over the past decade compared with an average 1.8 percent for the US.
Standard Chartered estimates China's growth will slow to an annual 8 percent pace by the middle of the decade, easing to 5 percent from 2027 to 2030.
The US economy is expected to grow at a below-consensus 1.9 percent in 2011 and then at its trend growth of 2.5 percent over the horizon to 2030.
The Chinese yuan is expected to strengthen from 6.64 this year to 4.39 in 2030, the British bank said.
China, though on fast expansion, also has its growing pains.
The economy is "unbalanced" and faces considerable risks, including a widening of imbalances, asset bubbles, overcapacity and rising bad loans which could lead to a serious decline, the report said.
Standard Chartered Bank said the world economy has twice enjoyed super-cycles. The first was from 1870 to 1913 and the second from 1945 to the early 1970s.
Also today, Japan's government said that output in China, the largest maker of mobile phones, computers and vehicles, surpassed Japan for the second straight quarter in the three months through September.
China's economy will be twice as big as that of the US by 2030 to account for 24 percent of global economic output, up from 9 percent, Standard Chartered Bank economists said in a report.
China's economy is expected to expand to US$24.6 trillion in a decade, surpassing the US's US$23.3 trillion by then.
"We believe that the world is in a 'super-cycle' of sustained high growth," economists led by Gerard Lyons said in the 152-page report. "The scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous."
The bank defines a super-cycle as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization, technological innovation and characterized by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.
"The super-cycle is much more than a China story," the report said.
Another emerging Asian might India will surpass Japan to be the third-biggest economy in the next decade, said the report.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said earlier that it estimates China will overtake the US by 2027.
The Chinese economy is flexing its muscle in the new millennium, overtaking Britain as the fourth largest economy in 2005 and taking its third place from Germany in 2007.
China has expanded by an average 10.3 percent a year over the past decade compared with an average 1.8 percent for the US.
Standard Chartered estimates China's growth will slow to an annual 8 percent pace by the middle of the decade, easing to 5 percent from 2027 to 2030.
The US economy is expected to grow at a below-consensus 1.9 percent in 2011 and then at its trend growth of 2.5 percent over the horizon to 2030.
The Chinese yuan is expected to strengthen from 6.64 this year to 4.39 in 2030, the British bank said.
China, though on fast expansion, also has its growing pains.
The economy is "unbalanced" and faces considerable risks, including a widening of imbalances, asset bubbles, overcapacity and rising bad loans which could lead to a serious decline, the report said.
Standard Chartered Bank said the world economy has twice enjoyed super-cycles. The first was from 1870 to 1913 and the second from 1945 to the early 1970s.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
