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China trade surplus falls amid global gloom
By Wang Yanlin |
October 13, 2011, Thursday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
China's trade surplus continued to narrow in September as exports growth weakened while imports still managed a strong increase.
Analysts said the outlook of China's trade turned even murkier due to the risk of a trade war with the United States after the US Senate passed a bill aiming at pressuring a stronger yuan.
China's trade surplus fell to US$14.5 billion last month from August's US$17.7 billion as exports increased 17.1 percent year-on-year and imports jumped 20.9 percent, the General Administration of Customs said today.
The surplus settled at US$31.5 billion in July and US$22.3 billion in June. The narrower gap in August was the first fall in six months. But it did not come along with better performance in imports as it usually does.
September's pace of exports moderated from 24.5 percent in August, while imports also softened from August's record of 30.2 percent.
"September export growth came in weaker than expected, driven by deteriorating demand from Europe," said Chang Jian, an economist at the Barclays Capital. "The import growth was in line with our expectation."
Chang estimated the weakening external demand would slow export growth further in the last quarter, and thus conclude a trade surplus of US$162 billion for this year, lower than last year's US$183.1 billion.
Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said earlier in Shanghai that China did not seek a trade surplus and the country would vigorously boost imports to balance its trade this year.
However, the passage of the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act on Tuesday by the US Senate may slow that effort and even trigger a trade war.
"The Senate's move is already sufficient to sour the atmosphere for bilateral cooperation," said Huang Yiping, another economist at Barclays Capital.
Analysts said the outlook of China's trade turned even murkier due to the risk of a trade war with the United States after the US Senate passed a bill aiming at pressuring a stronger yuan.
China's trade surplus fell to US$14.5 billion last month from August's US$17.7 billion as exports increased 17.1 percent year-on-year and imports jumped 20.9 percent, the General Administration of Customs said today.
The surplus settled at US$31.5 billion in July and US$22.3 billion in June. The narrower gap in August was the first fall in six months. But it did not come along with better performance in imports as it usually does.
September's pace of exports moderated from 24.5 percent in August, while imports also softened from August's record of 30.2 percent.
"September export growth came in weaker than expected, driven by deteriorating demand from Europe," said Chang Jian, an economist at the Barclays Capital. "The import growth was in line with our expectation."
Chang estimated the weakening external demand would slow export growth further in the last quarter, and thus conclude a trade surplus of US$162 billion for this year, lower than last year's US$183.1 billion.
Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said earlier in Shanghai that China did not seek a trade surplus and the country would vigorously boost imports to balance its trade this year.
However, the passage of the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act on Tuesday by the US Senate may slow that effort and even trigger a trade war.
"The Senate's move is already sufficient to sour the atmosphere for bilateral cooperation," said Huang Yiping, another economist at Barclays Capital.
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