China's CPI to ease sharply on lower food costs
By Wang Yanlin |
April 4, 2013, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S inflation rate may ease sharply in March due to falling food prices and a surprisingly weaker economic recovery, analysts said ahead of the release of data next Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, will likely rise 2.2 percent in March from a year earlier, down from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank.
The moderation in the CPI is attributed to declining food costs after the Spring Festival as the data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that prices of sea food, vegetables, pork and eggs have plunged by the second strongest rate since July 2008.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, expected the CPI to cool to 2.5 percent last month due to cheaper food prices which may fall from 1.5 percent in February.
But Lian expects March CPI rate to be the bottom of this round of inflation growth, with prices likely to steadily increase in coming quarters.
"The recent economic fluctuations around the globe have led to falling prices of commodities. But with the stabilization of the United States and European economies which in turn support Chinese performance, inflation in China will rise," Lian said.
Meanwhile Industrial Bank's Lu said exports, the surprising star sector in the previous two months, may slow to a single-digit growth.
"Weaker trade has been reflected in the volume of shipments between China and European, Mediterranean and American routes in the past month which used less than 70 percent capacity," Lu said.
He forecast exports may gain 6.5 percent annually in March, below February's surge of 21.8 percent. Imports may shed 0.5 percent, recovering from the 15-percent drop in February.
Lian at BoCom projected the Producer Price Index, which gauges factory-gate inflation, will be a negative 2 percent in March, and turn positive only in the middle of this year.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, will likely rise 2.2 percent in March from a year earlier, down from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank.
The moderation in the CPI is attributed to declining food costs after the Spring Festival as the data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that prices of sea food, vegetables, pork and eggs have plunged by the second strongest rate since July 2008.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, expected the CPI to cool to 2.5 percent last month due to cheaper food prices which may fall from 1.5 percent in February.
But Lian expects March CPI rate to be the bottom of this round of inflation growth, with prices likely to steadily increase in coming quarters.
"The recent economic fluctuations around the globe have led to falling prices of commodities. But with the stabilization of the United States and European economies which in turn support Chinese performance, inflation in China will rise," Lian said.
Meanwhile Industrial Bank's Lu said exports, the surprising star sector in the previous two months, may slow to a single-digit growth.
"Weaker trade has been reflected in the volume of shipments between China and European, Mediterranean and American routes in the past month which used less than 70 percent capacity," Lu said.
He forecast exports may gain 6.5 percent annually in March, below February's surge of 21.8 percent. Imports may shed 0.5 percent, recovering from the 15-percent drop in February.
Lian at BoCom projected the Producer Price Index, which gauges factory-gate inflation, will be a negative 2 percent in March, and turn positive only in the middle of this year.
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