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China's July inflation may stay below 2% for 1st in 3 years
By Wang Yanlin |
August 2, 2012, Thursday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S inflation rate may drop below 2 percent for the first time in nearly three years, leaving more space for the country to roll out fresh supportive policies to spur growth, analysts said before the key economic data are released next week.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may expand 1.7 percent from a year earlier in July, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co Ltd. Tang Jianwei, an analyst at Bank of Communications, also said the CPI growth is likely to moderate to around 1.7 percent last month.
"Summer is a season when supply of food is sufficient, which helps to ease the increase of consumer prices," Tang said. "However, there still exist tail risks of CPI rebound in the coming months due to the impact of storms and floods in some places that may disrupt production and logistics of vegetables."
In June, China's CPI grew at the slowest pace in 29 months of 2.2 percent thanks to cheaper foods. Meanwhile, China's economic data for July may provide new evidence of a stabilizing economy, analysts said.
Industrial Bank's Lu predicted that industrial production growth would recover to 9.7 percent in July, compared with June's 9.5 percent rise, while fixed-asset investment may also quicken by 0.1 percentage point from a month earlier to a growth of 20.5 percent in July.
"China has accelerated approvals of certain investment projects concerning airports, power stations and railways. The initial efforts can be reflected in July's data," Lu said.
But exports and imports would remain weak. Both may register a single-digit growth in July, analysts said.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may expand 1.7 percent from a year earlier in July, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co Ltd. Tang Jianwei, an analyst at Bank of Communications, also said the CPI growth is likely to moderate to around 1.7 percent last month.
"Summer is a season when supply of food is sufficient, which helps to ease the increase of consumer prices," Tang said. "However, there still exist tail risks of CPI rebound in the coming months due to the impact of storms and floods in some places that may disrupt production and logistics of vegetables."
In June, China's CPI grew at the slowest pace in 29 months of 2.2 percent thanks to cheaper foods. Meanwhile, China's economic data for July may provide new evidence of a stabilizing economy, analysts said.
Industrial Bank's Lu predicted that industrial production growth would recover to 9.7 percent in July, compared with June's 9.5 percent rise, while fixed-asset investment may also quicken by 0.1 percentage point from a month earlier to a growth of 20.5 percent in July.
"China has accelerated approvals of certain investment projects concerning airports, power stations and railways. The initial efforts can be reflected in July's data," Lu said.
But exports and imports would remain weak. Both may register a single-digit growth in July, analysts said.
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