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China's September economic activity to increase: UBS
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SEPTEMBER data will show an improvement in China's real economic activity, albeit a modest one, Wang Tao, chief China economist with UBS, has forecast.
August's unfavorable base effect should have worn off in September, as PMIs for the month suggest stabilization in manufacturing activity, she said in a research note on Friday.
Both official and HSBC PMIs were unchanged from August. The manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) remained at 51.1 in September.
Along with PMI stabilization, power use picked up in the first 20 days in September, indicating industrial production growth might improve from August's 6.9 percent, a 5.5 year low, she said.
September's exports may also improve as the USß recovery looks firm enough to underpin demand for Chinese products, she said. The PMI sub-index for new export orders rose 0.2 to 50.2 in September.
"We see China's exports picking up to a pace of 14 percent year on year in September, boosted in part by last year's low base," she said.
Given August's deceleration, such a modest September rebound will not prevent GDP growth from further decelerating to 7.1 percent year on year, compared to 7.5 percent in the second quarter, she forecast.
She said that fixed asset investment is still expected to be weighed down by the property downturn even though most cities had relaxed their home purchase restrictions.
She predicted faltering domestic demand and softening inflation would prompt more policy easing, including a lowering of first mortgage down payment requirements, acceleration of key infrastructure projects, and stronger push through of growth-friendly reform.
To boost the property market, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission on Tuesday announced relaxation of lending policy to boost purchases of second homes.
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