China鈥檚 economy given a boost as trade surprises
Print Edition
CHINA’S trade improved in September, with exports and imports beating forecasts to give the economy a surprise boost.
Exports rose 15.3 percent from a year earlier to US$213.6 billion, faster than the pace of 9.4 percent the month before, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports increased 7 percent to US$182.7 billion, reversing August’s 2.4 percent decline and defying forecasts of a continued contraction.
The trade surplus in September was US$30.9 billion compared to the record-breaking US$49.8 billion in August.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the data sent positive signals, but it was hard to say if the economy had again gained growth momentum.
“The number of exports reflected improving demand from advanced economies,” Zhou said. “But the imports data appeared to be somewhat inconsistent with the sluggish domestic demand, suggesting that commodity traders may have taken the advantage of low commodity prices in the past month.”
Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays, said the rise in exports and imports had come as a surprise but he said further indications from industrial production, investment and consumption were needed before an economic stabilization could be confirmed.
The data showed exports to the United States and the European Union grew 15.3 percent and 14.9 percent respectively in September, compared to 9.4 percent and 12.1 percent a month earlier.
At the same time, iron ore imports accelerated to 13.5 percent last month, compared to August’s 8.5 percent.
Despite the unexpected jump in September, China’s trade edged up just 3.3 percent in the first three quarters, trailing the 7.5 percent target for the year.
“There is a risk that China may miss the annual target,” Zhou said. “Notably, China did not achieve the trade growth target of 8 percent in 2013 and 2012 either.”
He said the relatively large trade surplus, which settled at US$231.5 billion in the first nine months, will continue to add appreciation pressure on the yuan.
China’s economy showed signs of recovery after expanding 7.7 percent from a year earlier in 2013, the lowest level in 12 years. It grew 7.5 percent in the second quarter, up from 7.4 percent in the first three months.
But since then, major activity indicators, including industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales, weakened in July and August, triggering market fears that this year’s economic growth target of 7.5 percent will not be met.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release the key activity data for September this week, and will roll out the third-quarter GDP next Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs has cut its third and fourth-quarter growth projections for China to 7.1 percent from the previous 7.3 percent and 7.2 percent, and predicts a 7.3 percent gain for the whole year.
Swiss bank UBS expects the economy to grow 7.2 percent this year, and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is projecting 7.3 percent growth.
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