China’s economy in Q3 seen to grow 6.6%
Print Edition
CHINA’S economic data for September may show a stabilizing economy but they can’t prevent the third-quarter growth sliding to as low as 6.6 percent, said analysts ahead of the data’s release starting next week.
“We expect the upcoming data to post less bad headline year-on-year growth of real activities,” said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS.
“But the performance in the third quarter has been weighed down by continued property destocking, stumbling industrial activity, shrinking stock market turnover and weak exports.”
She projected China’s gross domestic product growth to weaken to an annual 6.6 percent in the July-September period, below the full-year official target of around 7 percent.
China’s economy surprisingly grew 7 percent in the first and second quarters.
Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, said that China’s economy was still facing downward pressure and that the key to bolster economic growth was investment.
“The inflation rate may moderate in September to make it possible for more supportive policies,” Lian said. “The investment is likely to maintain a growth rate of around 10.8 percent in the first three quarters, and may pick up in the future given the strengthened efforts on sustaining the growth momentum.”
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, was forecast to grow 1.8 percent in September, according to BoCom, lower than the 2 percent gain in August, which was a one-year high. BoCom estimated the third-quarter growth to be around 6.9 percent.
UBS said the fixed-asset investment growth will likely have stabilized, while retail sales are seen to grow 10.8 percent.
Both banks see a continued slump in exports and imports in September, and industrial output unlikely to rebound.
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of operating conditions in large state-owned industrial companies, rose slightly to 49.8 last month from August’s 49.7 — the first rebound in three months.
The official non-manufacturing PMI, a gauge of conditions in the state-owned service sector, remained at 53.4 in September.
But the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, a similar indicator slanted toward private and export-oriented companies, fell to 47.2 last month, from August’s 47.3, to become the worst in six and a half years.
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