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China’s economy remains soft, economists say
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CHINA'S economic data for March may remain soft and land the first-quarter growth at a level lower than the government annual target of around 7 percent, analysts said before the release of the data starting this week.
The strengthened policy easing efforts in recent months are likely to help economic growth rebound in the second quarter, but the effects will be mitigated by the still weak property sector, they said.
"We expect the upcoming March and first-quarter data to show economic activity still pallid," said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS.
"They are weighed down largely by the ongoing property downturn and weak industrial investment. As a result, the gross domestic product growth will likely soften to 6.9 percent in the first three months," Wang said.
The National Bureau of Statistics is set to unveil the first-quarter growth data next Wednesday after the release of consumer prices and producer prices this Friday.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, also predicted the growth rate in the January-March period will land at 6.9 percent, lower than the government target of around 7 percent for this year.
"China will continue to face deflationary pressure, while March data of industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales may stay weak," Lian said, noting imports will likely plunge again due to sluggish demand.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, will likely expand 1.3 percent in March, down from the pace of 1.4 percent a month earlier, Lian said, while other data may largely stay at the same level as that in February, except that imports may slide further by 20.5 percent, compared with February's fall of 15 percent.
China's gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent from a year earlier in 2014, the slowest in more than 24 years. The performance at the start of the year continued to falter, with key indicators staying weak in the first two months.
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