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China's manufacturing growth slows in Jan
By Wang Yanlin |
February 1, 2011, Tuesday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINESE manufacturing activities cooled further in January amid tightening policies, surging inflation and seasonal changes, while analysts said the moderation will likely continue.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of industrial activities across the country, lost 1 percentage point from a month earlier to 52.9 percent in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today.
It was the second straight monthly decline after the index reduced to 53.9 percent in December from November's 55.2 percent.
A reading above 50 percent indicated an expansion, and the index has been above that line for 23 months in a row, indicating a relatively stable recovery from the global financial crisis.
"The official manufacturing PMI moderated more than expected in January," said Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital. "The moderation and part of the downside surprise could be attributable to seasonal weakness, as the cold weather and fewer working days coming with an earlier holiday this year."
The 2011 Chinese Lunar New Year holiday starts tomorrow, which is about two weeks earlier than last year, and many workers have returned to their hometown to celebrate the holiday, thus disrupting production.
But tightening policies to curb inflation and the rising input prices also made it harder for manufacturers to bolster production. Zhang Liqun, an analyst at the federation, said the index is very likely to continue to decrease in the following months.
"Industrial companies have to deal with surging prices and smaller loan quotas as China adopted a prudent monetary policy," Zhang said. "The policy and economic outlook are rather obscure at the moment."
But in contrast with the official index, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index held relatively steady. It was 54.5 in January, up slightly from 54.4 in December, which indicated better conditions in private companies.
While the official PMI is weighted heavily towards big domestic companies, the HSBC survey is slanted more towards privately-owned and export-oriented firms.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of industrial activities across the country, lost 1 percentage point from a month earlier to 52.9 percent in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today.
It was the second straight monthly decline after the index reduced to 53.9 percent in December from November's 55.2 percent.
A reading above 50 percent indicated an expansion, and the index has been above that line for 23 months in a row, indicating a relatively stable recovery from the global financial crisis.
"The official manufacturing PMI moderated more than expected in January," said Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital. "The moderation and part of the downside surprise could be attributable to seasonal weakness, as the cold weather and fewer working days coming with an earlier holiday this year."
The 2011 Chinese Lunar New Year holiday starts tomorrow, which is about two weeks earlier than last year, and many workers have returned to their hometown to celebrate the holiday, thus disrupting production.
But tightening policies to curb inflation and the rising input prices also made it harder for manufacturers to bolster production. Zhang Liqun, an analyst at the federation, said the index is very likely to continue to decrease in the following months.
"Industrial companies have to deal with surging prices and smaller loan quotas as China adopted a prudent monetary policy," Zhang said. "The policy and economic outlook are rather obscure at the moment."
But in contrast with the official index, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index held relatively steady. It was 54.5 in January, up slightly from 54.4 in December, which indicated better conditions in private companies.
While the official PMI is weighted heavily towards big domestic companies, the HSBC survey is slanted more towards privately-owned and export-oriented firms.
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