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January 11, 2013

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China's new yuan lending falls in December

CHINA'S new yuan lending fell in December while a broader measure of financing surged 28 percent, the central bank data showed yesterday.

New yuan loans at banks amounted to 454.3 billion yuan (US$73 billion) last month, less than 640.5 billion yuan a year ago and earlier market estimates of between 500 and 600 billion yuan.

Total social financing, including loans, bank acceptance bills, corporate bonds and equity financing, was 1.63 trillion yuan in December, up 351 billion yuan or 28 percent from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said yesterday on its website. The growth compared with an increase of 19 percent in November.

It's good news that social financing surged in December, Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist for Asia except Japan at Credit Agricole, said in a note.

"This was possible despite a surprisingly sharp contraction in new yuan lending," he said. "As was the case earlier in the year, other forms of funding the economy have gained importance, with trust loans up 532 percent and foreign currency loans up 210 percent."

For the last 12 months, total social financing, the broad measure of liquidity in the economy, rose 2.9 trillion yuan to 15.8 trillion yuan. Corporate bond sales rose 65 percent last year to 2.25 trillion yuan, while trust loans surged more than sixfold to 1.29 trillion yuan, according to the central bank.

Yuan-backed bank loans provided 52.1 percent of total funding, 6.1 percentage points down from a year earlier. Trust loans accounted for 8.2 percent, 6.6 percentage points up, signaling the economy's decreasing dependence on bank credit.

M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.8 percent in December from a year earlier, below an annual target of 14 percent.

Forex reserves grow the least in 2012

China's foreign exchange reserves grew the least in the past decade to US$3.31 trillion, the world's biggest, last year, the central bank said yesterday.

The holdings rose US$129 billion from a year earlier amid slowing exports and speculative capital outflows, the People's Bank of China said.

"China posted only a small gain in foreign exchange reserves, which stayed below the annual trade surplus," Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist for Asia except Japan at Credit Agricole, said in a note yesterday. "This suggests capital outflows or the PBOC transferred the reserves to another entity. Most likely, either foreign investors were not confident in China's recovery or domestic investors were finding ways to diversify abroad."




 

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