THERE is an old Chinese proverb that says, "Be not afraid of growing slowly; be afraid only of standing still."

For several decades in China, prosperity has been so pervasive that the very idea of growing slowly, much less standing still, has become almost unthinkable.

Is 2012 shaping up as the year to start thinking about this again?

With the eurozone mired in a debt crisis, US growth limping along and Japan's economy still not off the sick list, global uncertainties weigh on China's outlook.

In public, Chinese officials haven't flinched.

At their Central Economic Work Conference that concluded on December 14, Chinese policymakers said they would maintain "a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy" in 2012, promising growth, stability and inflation under control.

Economic analysts tend to be a bit more dour. Their forecasts of China's economic growth next year range from 8 percent to 9 percent -- all below the 10.4 percent pace of 2010 and the 9.4 percent pace in the first three quarters of this year.

Exposure to Europe

There are two main concerns. Externally, it is the threat the European debt crisis and possible recession pose to China's exports. Domestically, it is a cooling property market.

"The decline in China's potential growth coincides with the expected eurozone recession and sub-par growth in the United States," said Shen Minggao, an economist at Citigroup. "It is also partly due to a property market correction that should slow investment."

Shen has cut his estimate for China's gross domestic product next year to 8.4 percent from 8.8 percent.

Wang Tao, a UBS AG economist, said a eurozone recession would lead to weaker Chinese growth next year. Her forecast is for GDP growth to fall to 8 percent.

"We expect China's exports to decline in early 2012 and stay flat for the year," Wang said. "As a result, China's gross domestic product growth may turn out to be the weakest since 2008."

Overseas shipments from China have notably moderated already. In November, exports rose 13.8 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace in nine months, according to the General Administration of Customs.

Bilateral trade with the European Union - China's biggest trading partner - increased 19.2 percent in the first 11 months, slower than overall trade growth of 23.6 percent. UBS AG's Wang said China might not see any growth in exports next year, while Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital, said 2012 export growth might halve to about 10 percent.

China has seen the writing on the wall and has been trying to diversify its trade with other markets to offset its exposure to Europe.

Bilateral trade with South Africa in the first 11 months of this year surged 82.5 percent. Trade with Russia expanded 44 percent, trade with Brazil rose 36.7 percent; and Australia, 33.8 percent.

Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said China was set to face "very severe" trade conditions in the first quarter of next year. To deal with that likelihood, China will beef up efforts to climb the value chain and produce more higher-priced, quality products, Shen said.

Efforts to expand domestic consumer spending also will continue.

The property market, as a key player in the domestic economy, is more problematic.

The recent Central Economic Work Conference announced that China would stick to tightening measures in the real estate industry.

"The government will unswervingly implement austerity measures aimed at curbing housing speculation and bringing down home prices to a reasonable level," the statement said.

That decision may come at a high cost.

Cui Li, chief economist for China at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said a weak property market posed a major downward risk to China's economy next year, which she predicted would grow 8.5 percent.

Property crash risk

"If investors' spending on property drops more than expected, it could mean a sharp deceleration in overall investment because capital for property accounts for one-fifth of total investment value," Cui said.

Citigroup's Shen said the government was unlikely to tolerate a property price decline of more than 20 percent.

"A crash in the property market would have a severe impact on growth and banks' asset quality," Shen said. "The government is, therefore, likely to ease home purchase restrictions if the slowdown becomes more severe."

Shen suggested China should replace current rigid home-purchase restrictions with an expansion of its experimental property tax system.

China's tough reins on housing have begun to produce some results.

In November, home prices fell in 49 of 70 cities. In Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the country's four gateway cities where austerity measures have been most rigorously enforced, new home prices lost between 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent from a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Would China's policymakers rush to loosen policies if the property industry goes sour and exports slump? Sun Lijian, an economics professor at Fudan University, said that would depend on the performance of the manufacturing sector and on inflation.

"Although inflation is no longer the top concern for policymakers, it remains a major source of worry after consumer prices surpassed the government target in each of the first 11 months of this year," Sun said.

The Consumer Price Index in the first 11 months of this year expanded 5.5 percent from a year earlier, hitting a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in June and easing to 4.2 percent in November. Some analysts forecast it may hover at around 4 percent next year.

Divining policy lingo

China's manufacturing sector, considered the backbone of the economy, has been slowing.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a gauge of manufacturing activities, slipped to 49 in November, the lowest in almost three years. A reading below 50 means contraction of industrial activity.

"If manufacturing continues to deteriorate for reasons that include less external demand, higher production costs and insufficient financing, the government will have to consider relaxing policies," Sun said.

There is another old saying in China: "It's wise to treat fast-changing conditions by maintaining the status quo, or having no changes at all." Sun said that is possibly the philosophy policymakers in China adopt today.

Economists sift through official policy lingo to ascertain the flexibility inherent in the word "prudent." Can it accommodate a shift from "tightening-neutral" to "neutral-easing?"

The official line is that "monetary policy will be fine-tuned in tandem with changing economic conditions, making the complete policy set next year flexible, targeted and forward-looking."

In the Hollywood end-of-the-world movie "2012," Tibet becomes the final haven sheltering all survivors of a global cataclysm. In real life, will China be a beacon in a sea of economic storms?

Next year, according to Vice Premier Wang Qisha, a stable China will be the country's biggest contribution to the world economy.