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October 4, 2012

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China's services sector slowing

CHINA'S services activities grew at a nearly two-year low in September, disappointing those expecting a revived rapid economic growth, an official survey showed yesterday.

The official purchasing managers' index for the service sector, slanted more toward big state-owned enterprises, fell to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August, according to the survey from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

As a reading above 50 means expansion, the index signaled a continued growth in service activities, but at the lowest pace since November 2010. Weakened construction services and transportation and a decline in new orders were a drag on growth.

"The fall in China's non-manufacturing PMI to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August is bad news," said John Ross, a visiting professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, on his microblog yesterday. "Together with weakness in manufacturing it means China's economy is still slowing."

The new data came on the heels of recovering, but still contracting, manufacturing activities in September from both big state-owned enterprises and privately owned and export-oriented factories and facilities.

The official manufacturing index rose to 49.8 in September, up 0.6 points from a month earlier, the logistics and purchasing federation said on Monday. It's the first improvement since May, though the indicator below 50 meant it remained in contraction.

Another earlier reading from HSBC, which tracks smaller, private manufacturers, also suggesting an easing decline as the HSBC PMI posted 47.9 in September, up from 47.6 in August.

The slower services growth announced yesterday seemed disappointing for those who were expecting quicker growth at home after the central government rolled out measures including eased monetary policy and renewed infrastructure plans.

China's central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July and has lowered three times since late 2011 the level of capital it requires banks to keep as reserves to bolster the economy.

Economists are concerned about slower economic growth in China at a time when Europe is still mired in a sovereign debt crisis and the United States is still waiting for a better job market and economic rebound.

China's economy grew 7.6 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, the slowest in three years and slightly beating the national target of a minimum 7.5 percent growth for this year. Gross domestic product figures for the third quarter are scheduled to be released on October 18.

On September 28, Fitch Ratings cut its 2012 growth forecasts for China to 7.8 percent from 8 percent, following similar growth forecast cuts by Asian Development Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

A survey of China's services sector, focused more on smaller services providers, will be released by HSBC and the research firm Markit next Monday.




 

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