China’s trade rebounds as global demand recovers
Print Edition
China’s trade rebounded in July with growth of both exports and imports turning positive after demand in the world’s major economies recovered.
Exports rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier to US$185.9 billion last month, reversing the decline of 3.1 percent in June, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Imports jumped 10.9 percent to US$168.1 billion, compared to June’s 0.7 percent decrease.
July’s trade surplus was US$17.8 billion, narrowing from US$27.1 billion in the previous month.
“Domestically, an improvement in liquidity access in the aftermath of June’s cash crunch may have restored trading activities,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Going forward, improving consumer confidence in the US and possibly Europe may help lift the external profile.”
Zhou expected China’s trade to strengthen further on supportive policies although he said that the overly strong yuan would remain a drag on China’s competitiveness.
Last Friday, the State Council announced 12 measures to boost exports, reflecting its intention to support growth amid concerns the country was losing its competitive edge.
Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan’s China chief economist, said July’s trade data came in better than expected with exports recovering moderately from earlier weakness and imports rebounding notably.
“Moderate recovery in July’s exports is led by rising demand in the Europe and the US, while imports data shows a broad-based gain in commodity space,” Zhu said.
However, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said observers should also take the much lower comparative base into consideration. Last July, trade grew at the slowest pace in 11 years on a monthly basis, Lu said.
In the first seven months, China’s trade rose 8.5 percent from a year earlier to US$2.35 trillion, with a surplus of US$125.7 billion, Customs data showed.
In July alone, China’s shipments with the European Union, the country’s largest trading partner, expanded 5 percent year on year to US$50.3 billion, while trade with the US surged 10 percent to US$44.3 billion.
In comparison, trade between China and Japan lost 6.1 percent to US$27 billion last month, a result of political tensions over territory disputes.
Shanghai’s trade value rose 3.1 percent to US$39.6 billion in July, ranking the city as the third-largest trader among Chinese provinces and municipalities.
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