Related News
Chinese economy may be stabilizing, analysts say
By Wang Yanlin |
June 4, 2012, Monday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S economy may have started to stabilize in May after a sharp deterioration in April although industrial production, fixed-asset investment, retail sales and trade are likely to stay weak.
After the current stimulus measures filter through, the performance in the world's second-largest economy may start to pick-up from this month, analysts said.
A set of data that measure economic conditions and are closely watched will be released this weekend.
"We expect signs of growth stabilization from the upcoming data release for May," said Helen Qiao, managing director at Morgan Stanley Research.
"After the downside surprise from the April growth data, we expect the May data package to confirm growth is stabilizing. We also look for some improvement in month-on-month growth, due to a more favorable calendar effect (22 working days in May 2012 vs 21 in May 2011) and policy easing kicking in," Qiao said.
She said she expects industrial production growth will likely recover slightly, but remain soft, reflecting weak industrial demand and a low level of manufacturing activities. Fixed-asset investment growth will be largely unchanged from that in April, as the potential rebound in social housing construction is offset by lackluster commodity housing investment. Retail sales growth may strengthen, but by a limited margin.
The Consumer Price Index, an indicator of inflation, may expand 3.2 percent from a year earlier in May, dropping from April's 3.4 percent and allowing more room for policy stimulus.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, was a bit more pessimistic about growth prospects.
"The data may add to policymakers' anxiety about the future," Lu said. "The indicators may remain flagging and the fixed-asset investment growth may slip below 20 percent."
He also expected both exports and imports will stage a minor rebound but still fall short of the yearly government target of 10 percent. Industrial production growth may improve a bit, but remain at a single digit level.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, released last Friday and which measures operational conditions in manufacturing activities, fell to 50.4 in May from April's 53.3, a five-month low and the first drop this year.
The index gauging China's service industry also lost 0.9 point to 55.2 in May, reflecting continued demand shrinkage.
To boost the economy, Chinese policymakers have launched a set of stimulus, including subsidies for buying energy-saving appliances and alternative-energy cars, the expansion of private investment into some state-dominated fields and faster approvals for new investment projects.
But such measures may take time to have an effect. Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said gross domestic product growth could retreat to 7.8 percent in the second quarter, the slowest in three years.
After the current stimulus measures filter through, the performance in the world's second-largest economy may start to pick-up from this month, analysts said.
A set of data that measure economic conditions and are closely watched will be released this weekend.
"We expect signs of growth stabilization from the upcoming data release for May," said Helen Qiao, managing director at Morgan Stanley Research.
"After the downside surprise from the April growth data, we expect the May data package to confirm growth is stabilizing. We also look for some improvement in month-on-month growth, due to a more favorable calendar effect (22 working days in May 2012 vs 21 in May 2011) and policy easing kicking in," Qiao said.
She said she expects industrial production growth will likely recover slightly, but remain soft, reflecting weak industrial demand and a low level of manufacturing activities. Fixed-asset investment growth will be largely unchanged from that in April, as the potential rebound in social housing construction is offset by lackluster commodity housing investment. Retail sales growth may strengthen, but by a limited margin.
The Consumer Price Index, an indicator of inflation, may expand 3.2 percent from a year earlier in May, dropping from April's 3.4 percent and allowing more room for policy stimulus.
Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, was a bit more pessimistic about growth prospects.
"The data may add to policymakers' anxiety about the future," Lu said. "The indicators may remain flagging and the fixed-asset investment growth may slip below 20 percent."
He also expected both exports and imports will stage a minor rebound but still fall short of the yearly government target of 10 percent. Industrial production growth may improve a bit, but remain at a single digit level.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, released last Friday and which measures operational conditions in manufacturing activities, fell to 50.4 in May from April's 53.3, a five-month low and the first drop this year.
The index gauging China's service industry also lost 0.9 point to 55.2 in May, reflecting continued demand shrinkage.
To boost the economy, Chinese policymakers have launched a set of stimulus, including subsidies for buying energy-saving appliances and alternative-energy cars, the expansion of private investment into some state-dominated fields and faster approvals for new investment projects.
But such measures may take time to have an effect. Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said gross domestic product growth could retreat to 7.8 percent in the second quarter, the slowest in three years.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
