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Consumer confidence on the rise in Germany
By Geir Moulson |
September 29, 2010, Wednesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
GERMAN consumer confidence has jumped as economic expectations spiked at their highest level in three years and unemployment continues to fall, according to a survey released yesterday.
The GfK research institute said its forward-looking confidence indicator for October stood at 4.9 points. That was up from 4.3 in September, which was revised from the initial reading of 4.1.
GfK said Germans' economic expectations were at their brightest for about three years in September. An index measuring those expectations rose by 6.9 points over the previous month to 53.5.
"The decisive factor in the strong sentiment among consumers is the extremely positive development of the employment market," GfK said.
Germany's unemployment rate stood at 7.6 percent in August, which is more or less where it was before the collapse of United States investment bank Lehman Brothers two years ago.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has enjoyed strong export-led growth this year. Its massive 2.2 percent growth in the second quarter over the previous three-month period has helped the 16-nation eurozone outperform the US.
But even at the height of the crisis, a government-subsidized short-time work plan that allowed employers to reduce production without cutting employees kept the jobless rate in check. It peaked at 8.7 percent in February this year. Though growth is expected to moderate over the rest of the year, GfK said "the overall trend will remain positive."
"After almost a lost decade for German consumption, caused by flat real wages, high unemployment and precautionary saving, a trend reversal is materializing," said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Brussels.
The bright outlook from GfK follows a survey last week that showed German business confidence edging up to its highest level in over three years in September.
The GfK research institute said its forward-looking confidence indicator for October stood at 4.9 points. That was up from 4.3 in September, which was revised from the initial reading of 4.1.
GfK said Germans' economic expectations were at their brightest for about three years in September. An index measuring those expectations rose by 6.9 points over the previous month to 53.5.
"The decisive factor in the strong sentiment among consumers is the extremely positive development of the employment market," GfK said.
Germany's unemployment rate stood at 7.6 percent in August, which is more or less where it was before the collapse of United States investment bank Lehman Brothers two years ago.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has enjoyed strong export-led growth this year. Its massive 2.2 percent growth in the second quarter over the previous three-month period has helped the 16-nation eurozone outperform the US.
But even at the height of the crisis, a government-subsidized short-time work plan that allowed employers to reduce production without cutting employees kept the jobless rate in check. It peaked at 8.7 percent in February this year. Though growth is expected to moderate over the rest of the year, GfK said "the overall trend will remain positive."
"After almost a lost decade for German consumption, caused by flat real wages, high unemployment and precautionary saving, a trend reversal is materializing," said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Brussels.
The bright outlook from GfK follows a survey last week that showed German business confidence edging up to its highest level in over three years in September.
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