Data show August rise for industry
By Wang Yanlin |
September 2, 2010, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINESE manufacturing growth rebounded unexpectedly in August, indicating that the sector may have recouped some expansionary steam, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a broad gauge of industrial activity across the country, nudged up to 51.7 percent last month from 51.2 percent in July, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said.
A reading above 50 percent signals an expansion, and it was the 18th straight month for the official index to stay above that line.
Meanwhile, HSBC's version of the China manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a three-month high of 51.9 in August, up from 49.4 in July.
Beats forecast
The HSBC survey, covering more than 400 manufacturing companies, is slanted more toward privately owned and export-oriented firms, while the official PMI is weighted toward big domestic companies.
"The official index beat our forecast of 51.5 percent," said Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley. "The rebound last month should be mainly explained by the supportive seasonality. However, comparing with magnitude of historic rebound in August, this one was rather modest."
In previous Augusts, the index rose 1.5 percentage points in 2005, and 0.7 percentage points in 2006, 2007 and 2009. This year's growth was 0.5 percentage points.
"It implied that moderation of industrial activities as the result of tightening on property sector and supply-side adjustment to achieve energy-conservation target remains on track." Wang added.
Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC, was more optimistic.
"The HSBC index returned to expansionary territory at a three-month high," he said, "and it reconfirmed our long-held view that China is moderating rather than melting down." He estimated that domestic demand will push GDP growth to around 9 percent in the second half and 2011.
Component indices under the official PMI showed that domestic demand rebounded strongly with new orders leaping to 53.1 last month from 50.9 in July. Production edged up to 53.1 from 52.7, while external demand demonstrated resilience, with new export orders rising to 52.2 from 51.2.
However, imports continued to soften to 48.4 in August from 49.3 in July. Destocking remained on track, evidenced by sliding of inventories of raw materials (to 47.3, from 47.8), and finished products (46.6, from 49.9).
Input prices rose to 60.5 in August from 50.4 a month earlier, highlighting increasing uncertainties on the inflation front in the second half of this year.
Although China's economic growth moderated to 10.3 percent in the second quarter from 11.9 percent in the first three months, the country overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, trailing only the United States, in the April-June period.
The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a broad gauge of industrial activity across the country, nudged up to 51.7 percent last month from 51.2 percent in July, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said.
A reading above 50 percent signals an expansion, and it was the 18th straight month for the official index to stay above that line.
Meanwhile, HSBC's version of the China manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a three-month high of 51.9 in August, up from 49.4 in July.
Beats forecast
The HSBC survey, covering more than 400 manufacturing companies, is slanted more toward privately owned and export-oriented firms, while the official PMI is weighted toward big domestic companies.
"The official index beat our forecast of 51.5 percent," said Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley. "The rebound last month should be mainly explained by the supportive seasonality. However, comparing with magnitude of historic rebound in August, this one was rather modest."
In previous Augusts, the index rose 1.5 percentage points in 2005, and 0.7 percentage points in 2006, 2007 and 2009. This year's growth was 0.5 percentage points.
"It implied that moderation of industrial activities as the result of tightening on property sector and supply-side adjustment to achieve energy-conservation target remains on track." Wang added.
Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC, was more optimistic.
"The HSBC index returned to expansionary territory at a three-month high," he said, "and it reconfirmed our long-held view that China is moderating rather than melting down." He estimated that domestic demand will push GDP growth to around 9 percent in the second half and 2011.
Component indices under the official PMI showed that domestic demand rebounded strongly with new orders leaping to 53.1 last month from 50.9 in July. Production edged up to 53.1 from 52.7, while external demand demonstrated resilience, with new export orders rising to 52.2 from 51.2.
However, imports continued to soften to 48.4 in August from 49.3 in July. Destocking remained on track, evidenced by sliding of inventories of raw materials (to 47.3, from 47.8), and finished products (46.6, from 49.9).
Input prices rose to 60.5 in August from 50.4 a month earlier, highlighting increasing uncertainties on the inflation front in the second half of this year.
Although China's economic growth moderated to 10.3 percent in the second quarter from 11.9 percent in the first three months, the country overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, trailing only the United States, in the April-June period.
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