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Data to herald recovery but at slower pace
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China's key economic data for September, due to be released next week, may illustrate a stabilizing recovery but the growth pace may have been decelerating from those in the previous two months, analysts said today.
The third-quarter gross domestic product may land at an annualized 7.8 percent, up from the increase of 7.5 percent in the second quarter, which was the slowest in more than one year.
"China's economic performance seemed to have weakened a bit in September after the strong rebound in August and July," said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. "But overall, the third-quarter GDP may have secured a long-awaited recovery that brings hope for a sustained rebound."
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may accelerate to expand 2.9 percent in September from the jump of 2.6 percent in August. While Producer Price Index, the measurement of factory-gate inflation, is expected to fall 1.5 percent last month, narrowing from August's drop of 1.6 percent.
Lu said the country needs to be cautious of growing inflationary pressure again as it was regaining growth momentum.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said China's monetary policy may stay neutral because the domestic demand has yet to present strong improvement.
"Inflation may continue its uptrend in the fourth quarter, but the pace won’t be quick due to the still modest demand at both home and abroad," Tang said.
The surprisingly good data for trade, industrial production and fixed-asset investment in August and July may weaken in September due to the limited effect of China's mini-stimulus, analysts said.
But retail sales may grow further thanks to people's optimism over an economic recovery in the third quarter, analysts said.
Some data have provided evidence for a stabilizing economy. The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of operating conditions in China's state-owned industrial companies, settled at 51.1 last month, up 0.1 point from that in August.
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