Data to offer more proof of robustness
By Wang Yanlin |
February 5, 2010, Friday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S January economic data will provide more evidence of robust growth with further rebound in exports and steady expansion in manufacturing, with consumer prices likely to remain flat, economists said.
"We believe January's economic data of China will garner as much, if not more, attention and interest amidst concerns over economic overheating and aggressive policy tightening," said Wang Qing, an economist of Morgan Stanley.
China may unveil the trade data for January next week, and other key economic figures on February 25, according to a schedule by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Wang forecast China's exports will continue to rebound firmly and surge 21.6 percent from a year earlier in January, up from the 17.7 percent gain in December 2009 due to a fast recovery in external demand.
Imports are expected to stage an even more explosive 75 percent annual surge in January from 56 percent in December, laying the ground for further gains in exports in the months ahead because importers buy more raw materials from overseas markets for production.
As for inflation, Wang said January's Consumer Price Index growth may remain at 1.9 percent.
"Although the base effect accounts for the bulk of the turnaround in deflation in recent months, sequential gains in the various price indices indicate that the recovery in domestic demand is also making a meaningful contribution," Wang said.
Li Maoyu, an analyst of Changjiang Securities Co, sees the CPI to grow between 1.6 and 2 percent in January, adding pressure for policy makers to tighten. "A solid recovery in China has cut the country's reliance on growth policies, and authorities should be more aware of the growing overheating risks and more inflationary pressure," Li said.
"We believe January's economic data of China will garner as much, if not more, attention and interest amidst concerns over economic overheating and aggressive policy tightening," said Wang Qing, an economist of Morgan Stanley.
China may unveil the trade data for January next week, and other key economic figures on February 25, according to a schedule by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Wang forecast China's exports will continue to rebound firmly and surge 21.6 percent from a year earlier in January, up from the 17.7 percent gain in December 2009 due to a fast recovery in external demand.
Imports are expected to stage an even more explosive 75 percent annual surge in January from 56 percent in December, laying the ground for further gains in exports in the months ahead because importers buy more raw materials from overseas markets for production.
As for inflation, Wang said January's Consumer Price Index growth may remain at 1.9 percent.
"Although the base effect accounts for the bulk of the turnaround in deflation in recent months, sequential gains in the various price indices indicate that the recovery in domestic demand is also making a meaningful contribution," Wang said.
Li Maoyu, an analyst of Changjiang Securities Co, sees the CPI to grow between 1.6 and 2 percent in January, adding pressure for policy makers to tighten. "A solid recovery in China has cut the country's reliance on growth policies, and authorities should be more aware of the growing overheating risks and more inflationary pressure," Li said.
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