Data to show improvement in GDP
By Wang Yanlin |
March 9, 2010, Tuesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S key economic data for February, due to be released on Thursday, will show the gross domestic product continued to improve.
But the data for consumer prices may show a faster rise after food prices increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday, although some economists say the country's policy stance remains uncertain in many aspects.
"China's economy is on the right track to recovery, and the February data will continue to reflect the improvement in exports and retail sales," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co.
Li forecast at least a 20 percent growth in February exports, keeping pace with a 21 percent jump in January.
Retail spending, forecast to grow between 15 percent and 20 percent during the Spring Festival holiday, will further boost sales in February, Li said.
Investment and consumption will remain major drivers of the economy, said Li Huiyong, an analyst at the Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. He predicted the data to show a stable investment growth of around 30 percent.
Both analysts, however, forecast that consumer prices and producer prices continued to rise in February, which may fuel inflationary concerns. They said consumer prices may grow to above 2 percent, even 2.4 percent, from the increase of 1.5 percent in January while producer prices may climb 5 percent last month from the rise of 4.3 percent in January.
The main driver of the rise in the consumer price index, a major gauge of inflation, is the sharply higher food prices during the Spring Festival holiday, which may gain more than 6 percent annually, analysts said.
But China's stance remains unclear for some analysts.
Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist, said "there has been tremendous uncertainty about economic and policy outlook," which makes it hard to predict the momentum of China's growth in investment and industrial production.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said last week the country will adjust its monetary policy in line with economic indicators and the effects of policy implementation.
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