December trade figures give economy a boost
By Wang Yanlin |
January 11, 2013, Friday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
China's trade growth was surprisingly good in December, a positive sign as the world's second-largest economy continued to recover.
Exports surged 14.1 percent from a year earlier, compared to November's 2.9 percent increase. And imports, which had failed to grow in November, rose 6 percent last month, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Last year as a whole, China's exports increased 7.9 percent to US$2.05 trillion and imports gained 4.3 percent to US$1.81 trillion, consolidating the country's position as the world's largest exporter and second largest importer.
China's trade surplus in 2012 stood at US$231 billion, swelling from the US$155 billion in 2011.
"The strong growth in December was very unexpected," said Li Maoyu, an analyst with Changjiang Securities Co. "It was likely powered by improving conditions in the European Union and the United States, where demand had increased."
Customs data showed that China's trade with the EU, its biggest trading partner, fell 3.7 percent on an annual basis in 2012, narrowing from the decrease of 4.1 percent in the first 11 months, while US shipments jumped 8.5 percent last year, up from the 8.2 percent between January and November.
Booming bilateral trade with other emerging markets also helped China to secure a relatively stable performance last year, although it was short of the government's initial growth target of 10 percent.
Chang Jian, a Barclays economist, said the country's efforts to diversify export destinations paid off.
"2012's slowing exports to major economies, Europe in particular, were offset in part by strong shipments to some emerging markets," Chang said.
China's exports to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its third-largest trading partner, expanded 20 percent last year, benefiting from a free-trade agreement.
Exports to Russia, South Africa, Australia and Canada all grew more than 10 percent.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the trade surplus had surprised the market.
"A large surplus continues to support currency appreciation," Zhou said. "The yuan spot rate remained sticky around 6.22 per US dollar in the past few weeks. As there have been strong US dollar selling pressures since the fourth quarter of 2012, the central bank had to intervene aggressively to maintain a steady yuan exchange rate."
Zhou said this in turn would lead to increased foreign exchange reserves in the coming months.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC Holdings Plc, said China's December exports were stronger than expected, but may be hard to sustain.
"Export growth was lifted by improving US demand and stabilization of eurozone demand," Qu said.
"With external headwinds still ahead, the current strong rally of exports growth will likely be hard to sustain."
Qu said China's recovery will have to rely on domestic demand, which continues to recover as evidenced by December's imports growth.
China announced a batch of measures last September which helped to stabilize trade.
The measures, introduced after a survey of traders, included scrapping fees for Customs' supervision, the acceleration of paperless clearance and improvements to a hotline service.
Exports surged 14.1 percent from a year earlier, compared to November's 2.9 percent increase. And imports, which had failed to grow in November, rose 6 percent last month, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.
Last year as a whole, China's exports increased 7.9 percent to US$2.05 trillion and imports gained 4.3 percent to US$1.81 trillion, consolidating the country's position as the world's largest exporter and second largest importer.
China's trade surplus in 2012 stood at US$231 billion, swelling from the US$155 billion in 2011.
"The strong growth in December was very unexpected," said Li Maoyu, an analyst with Changjiang Securities Co. "It was likely powered by improving conditions in the European Union and the United States, where demand had increased."
Customs data showed that China's trade with the EU, its biggest trading partner, fell 3.7 percent on an annual basis in 2012, narrowing from the decrease of 4.1 percent in the first 11 months, while US shipments jumped 8.5 percent last year, up from the 8.2 percent between January and November.
Booming bilateral trade with other emerging markets also helped China to secure a relatively stable performance last year, although it was short of the government's initial growth target of 10 percent.
Chang Jian, a Barclays economist, said the country's efforts to diversify export destinations paid off.
"2012's slowing exports to major economies, Europe in particular, were offset in part by strong shipments to some emerging markets," Chang said.
China's exports to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its third-largest trading partner, expanded 20 percent last year, benefiting from a free-trade agreement.
Exports to Russia, South Africa, Australia and Canada all grew more than 10 percent.
Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, said the trade surplus had surprised the market.
"A large surplus continues to support currency appreciation," Zhou said. "The yuan spot rate remained sticky around 6.22 per US dollar in the past few weeks. As there have been strong US dollar selling pressures since the fourth quarter of 2012, the central bank had to intervene aggressively to maintain a steady yuan exchange rate."
Zhou said this in turn would lead to increased foreign exchange reserves in the coming months.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC Holdings Plc, said China's December exports were stronger than expected, but may be hard to sustain.
"Export growth was lifted by improving US demand and stabilization of eurozone demand," Qu said.
"With external headwinds still ahead, the current strong rally of exports growth will likely be hard to sustain."
Qu said China's recovery will have to rely on domestic demand, which continues to recover as evidenced by December's imports growth.
China announced a batch of measures last September which helped to stabilize trade.
The measures, introduced after a survey of traders, included scrapping fees for Customs' supervision, the acceleration of paperless clearance and improvements to a hotline service.
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