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Doubts over truth of growth data ill-founded
Print Edition
CHINA’S top economic planner defended data authenticity yesterday in response to assumptions that the government may have distorted growth figures to make them look good, saying the claims were either “logically wrong” or “unreliable.”
Official data showed China’s economy grew 7 percent in the first half of the year, in line with the annual target, but some pessimists have claimed that real growth was much lower during the period.
The National Development and Reform Commission said in an online statement that there have been continuing doubts about China’s data accuracy since the country’s reform and opening-up, but those doubts have mostly been proven ill-founded.
The 7 percent rate in the first six months was largely in line with forecasts from major domestic and international research centers such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the World Bank, the statement noted.
Rejecting claims that the GDP rate has been overstated by 1 to 2 percentage points, the NDRC said slumping import prices have limited impact on China’s GDP calculation and the country now relies on the service industry for growth that consumes less global commodities.
To those that drew their lower forecasts from weak indicators such as power use and rail freight, the NDRC said China’s economic structure has undergone significant changes, making such indicators less reflective of economic activities.
The service industry contributed 49.5 percent of gross domestic product growth in the first half of the year, up 6.6 percentage points from that in 2007, the NDRC noted.
China’s 7 percent growth was solidly underpinned by stable economic fundamentals such as rising consumption, recovering investments and exports, as well as a steady job market, the NDRC concluded.
The latest statement came after another NDRC release on Tuesday that said the government has plenty of policy room and options to achieve its annual growth target of around 7 percent.
With a cooling property market and falling external demand amid a tepid global recovery, China’s economy has hit a soft patch. In addition, fresh pressure from capital market volatility this summer, currency devaluation in emerging markets and slumping global commodity prices are further muddying growth prospects.
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