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March 28, 2013

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Dubai banks on another economic boom

FOUR kilometers off the coast of Dubai, more than 200 tiny, man-made islands bake under the sun.

Built five years ago, they were to be one of the emirate's most spectacular projects, an archipelago of resorts and luxury housing laid out in the shape of a world map.

Apart from a few facilities such as a villa and a beach club, the islands are empty. After creating them at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars, state-owned property firm Nakheel sold about 70 percent of the land. But most buyers have lacked the cash or the will to proceed with plans.

A little over three years after a corporate debt crisis drove it to the brink of default, Dubai is still littered with relics of the disaster, in the form of unfinished real estate projects and battered balance sheets.

But it is laying the groundwork for another economic boom, based on its role as a tourism and business hub for the region, and a haven for money from India, China and fast-growing countries in Africa.

Dubai's expansion plans are striking in that they are being unveiled while the emirate is still a long way from learing the debt pile it accumulated.

Standard Chartered estimates US$48 billion of bonds and loans will mature between 2014 and 2016, including about US$10 billion of restructured debt at state-owned Dubai World and Nakheel. Some of this debt might have to be restructured a second time, the bank said in a research report.

But Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, signalled a push for growth in November, announcing plans for a huge tourism and retail development including the world's largest shopping mall, over 100 hotels, and a park 30 percent bigger than London's Hyde Park.

The government's central projection is for the population to rise above 3 million people by 2020 from just over 2 million at present. Under an "aggressive" growth scenario, the population could be near 4 million by the end of the decade, it estimates.

Iyad Malas, chief executive of local shopping mall and hotel operator Majid Al Futtaim, said Dubai's development would depend on two things: tourist numbers and population growth.

"You have to have a vision that is ambitious. If I set the target high and I hit 75 percent of it, I'm happy. If I set it low and achieve it year after year, I will never have strong growth," Malas said.





 

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