Related News
Economists: November credit to soar
By Zhang Fengming |
November 30, 2010, Tuesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S November credit is expected to be as high as 580 billion yuan (US$87 billion), which will very likely push up the whole-year credit beyond the authorities' 7.5-trillion yuan target, economists said.
Banks in China extended more-than-estimated 587.7 billion yuan of new yuan loans in October. The October new loan figure was close to the also stronger-than-expected September print of 595.5 billion yuan.
Banks have already extended loans of 6.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months. To meet this year's loan target, banks should contain their average monthly loan issuing within 306 billion in the last two months of this year, economists suggest.
"While inflation is rising, credit is adding fuel to fire with growth momentum still very strong," said Lu Zhengwei, an Industrial Bank senior economist. "November credit could be as high as 580 billion yuan and the market is jittery that the whole-year credit will be bigger than the 7.5-trillion yuan maximum target."
The view is echoed by Citigroup economists. "Accelerating inflation and rebounding money growth beget more tightening," Citigroup said in a research note.
China is set to disclose its November monetary data around December 11.
It was reported that China's big-four state-owned banks have extended more than 200 billion yuan of new yuan credit in the first three weeks of this month. The big-four, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for about 37 percent of market share. On that basis, the new yuan credit is estimated at more than 500 billion yuan in the first three weeks of this month.
On the ample liquidity, economists are expecting a tighter monetary policy, including one more interest rate hike and one more reserve requirement increase this year.
Standard Chartered said it expects more quantitative tightening, including three or four more reserve requirement increases by the end of the first half of next year and monthly loan quotas, besides four more interest rate hikes by the middle of 2011 to tame inflation.
Banks in China extended more-than-estimated 587.7 billion yuan of new yuan loans in October. The October new loan figure was close to the also stronger-than-expected September print of 595.5 billion yuan.
Banks have already extended loans of 6.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months. To meet this year's loan target, banks should contain their average monthly loan issuing within 306 billion in the last two months of this year, economists suggest.
"While inflation is rising, credit is adding fuel to fire with growth momentum still very strong," said Lu Zhengwei, an Industrial Bank senior economist. "November credit could be as high as 580 billion yuan and the market is jittery that the whole-year credit will be bigger than the 7.5-trillion yuan maximum target."
The view is echoed by Citigroup economists. "Accelerating inflation and rebounding money growth beget more tightening," Citigroup said in a research note.
China is set to disclose its November monetary data around December 11.
It was reported that China's big-four state-owned banks have extended more than 200 billion yuan of new yuan credit in the first three weeks of this month. The big-four, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for about 37 percent of market share. On that basis, the new yuan credit is estimated at more than 500 billion yuan in the first three weeks of this month.
On the ample liquidity, economists are expecting a tighter monetary policy, including one more interest rate hike and one more reserve requirement increase this year.
Standard Chartered said it expects more quantitative tightening, including three or four more reserve requirement increases by the end of the first half of next year and monthly loan quotas, besides four more interest rate hikes by the middle of 2011 to tame inflation.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
