Related News
Economists predict higher inflation in July's data
By Wang Yanlin |
August 3, 2011, Wednesday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S rampant inflation may persist in July, and analysts said they can't rule out a faster rate than that of June, which was a three-year high.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release July's key economic data next Tuesday. Among the figures, consumer prices and industrial output are the most watched as they are indicators of China's efforts to keep inflation and economic growth in balance.
"June's data relieved the concerns of a hard landing and stagflation and July's data will offer a clear picture of the economic outlook," said Lu Zhengwei, an economist at the Industrial Bank Co Ltd. "We expect July's figures to rekindle such concerns because inflation may be higher and industrial production may show moderating growth."
Lu estimated the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may climb between 6.3 percent and 6.7 percent in July, while industrial production may grow an annualized 14.6 percent.
China's consumer prices swelled 6.4 percent year-on-year in June, a three-year high that prompted a raise of interest rate on July 6. The central bank has already raised interest rate three times this year and bank reserve requirement ratio six times to combat inflation.
China's industrial output jumped 15.1 percent from a year earlier in June, accelerating from the pace of 13.3 in May, thanks to the abating impact from the Japanese earthquake.
However, the official PMI, released on Monday, indicated a moderating growth of the manufacturing sector although its performance is better than many economists had expected. July's official PMI stood at 50.7 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier.
China will continue to fight inflation resolutely in the second half. Its economy still has great potential for rapid growth, said Li Pumin, a spokesman at the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency, on Tuesday.
He said macroeconomic policies would focus on some prominent issues, such as stabilizing prices and maintaining real estate policies, and improving business environment for small enterprises.
Lu, the Industrial Bank economist, anticipated another interest rate increase in August as policymakers continue to wrestle with inflation. A Xinhua report said the interest rate raise may happen next Wednesday, one day after the data is made public.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release July's key economic data next Tuesday. Among the figures, consumer prices and industrial output are the most watched as they are indicators of China's efforts to keep inflation and economic growth in balance.
"June's data relieved the concerns of a hard landing and stagflation and July's data will offer a clear picture of the economic outlook," said Lu Zhengwei, an economist at the Industrial Bank Co Ltd. "We expect July's figures to rekindle such concerns because inflation may be higher and industrial production may show moderating growth."
Lu estimated the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may climb between 6.3 percent and 6.7 percent in July, while industrial production may grow an annualized 14.6 percent.
China's consumer prices swelled 6.4 percent year-on-year in June, a three-year high that prompted a raise of interest rate on July 6. The central bank has already raised interest rate three times this year and bank reserve requirement ratio six times to combat inflation.
China's industrial output jumped 15.1 percent from a year earlier in June, accelerating from the pace of 13.3 in May, thanks to the abating impact from the Japanese earthquake.
However, the official PMI, released on Monday, indicated a moderating growth of the manufacturing sector although its performance is better than many economists had expected. July's official PMI stood at 50.7 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier.
China will continue to fight inflation resolutely in the second half. Its economy still has great potential for rapid growth, said Li Pumin, a spokesman at the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency, on Tuesday.
He said macroeconomic policies would focus on some prominent issues, such as stabilizing prices and maintaining real estate policies, and improving business environment for small enterprises.
Lu, the Industrial Bank economist, anticipated another interest rate increase in August as policymakers continue to wrestle with inflation. A Xinhua report said the interest rate raise may happen next Wednesday, one day after the data is made public.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
