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Economists project positive data for August

CHINA'S key economic data for August, due to be released next week, may show a stable month with slightly better performance than that in July, analysts said.

The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may return to 2.6 percent, down from the increase of 2.7 percent in both July and June, which was a four-month high, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank.

Lu forecast retail sales and fixed-asset investment will expand at a faster pace while the growth of industrial production may remain flat. The surprisingly good trade in July may stabilize last month with both exports and imports moderating a bit.

Supportive measures, including tax reduction for small companies, more investment in railways and other infrastructure construction as well as less red tape for exporters, have been adopted to strike the balance between short-term growth stability and medium-term risk mitigation.

Some data have laid the foundation for a better outlook. The official Purchasing Managers' Index, a comprehensive gauge of operating conditions in China's industrial companies, increased to 51 last month, a 16-month high that indicated the growth momentum was accelerating in the world's second-largest economy.

JP Morgan has revised its projection of third-quarter growth to 7.6 percent year on year, bringing the whole year expectation to 7.6 percent, up from 7.4 percent previously.




 

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