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October 10, 2009

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Emerging markets' role in recovery

CHINA and other emerging markets continued to lead the global economic recovery in the third quarter of this year and a further improvement is expected in the fourth quarter, according to an HSBC index.

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, conducted by the banking giant, posted the strongest quarterly rise since the second quarter of last year to 55.3 in the third quarter of this year, the London-based bank said.

Any reading above 50 signals expansion while a reading below 50 indicates an output contraction.

"As the world's economic center of gravity shifts from West to East, the economic strength of emerging markets will play an increasingly central role in the development of financial markets and international relations," said Stephen Green, group chairman of HSBC Holdings Plc.

The index has rebounded sharply from an all-time low of 43.8 recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.

On a quarterly comparison, the index of manufacturing and service output was up from 50.7 in the second quarter of this year.

Michael Geoghegan, group chief executive of HSBC, said it is clear that emerging markets have real dynamism and momentum compared to some economies in the West.

"The index shows that emerging markets continue to power the growth in the global economy," he said.

HSBC compiled the index using data of purchasing managers' indexes in 13 countries or territories such as China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia and India.

"Although the United States remains the most important trading partner for many emerging nations, its relative importance is declining," said Stephen King, HSBC's chief economist. "Increasingly, emerging markets trade with each other."

King expects emerging nations to grow 6 percent next year while the developed countries are likely to grow by only 1.8 percent.


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