Euro service data signal weakness
Source: Agencies |
July 6, 2011, Wednesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
THE growth of services in Europe slowed in June in the face of sluggish new orders and rising interest rates, giving firms less optimism about the year ahead, business surveys showed yesterday.
The eurozone service sector grew at its weakest pace since October with an unexpectedly deep contraction in Italy and smaller countries masked by resilience in Germany and France.
In Britain, the Markit services purchasing managers index showed growth but was not strong enough to generate any meaningful increase in employment.
The monthly surveys echoed earlier data from China, where growth in the fledgling services sector slowed slightly in June. Similarly, data due from the United States today are also expected to highlight weaker growth.
Still, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in four months on Thursday even though the PMI data provide little reason to do so.
"The rate at which growth appears to be easing off will only raise concerns that the current trend may amount to more than a usual cyclical slowdown," said Janet Henry, economist at HSBC. "We continue to expect that the ECB, following the signaled increase expected for July, will slow down the process of interest rate normalization, with the next rate rise not expected until November."
Markit revised down its June PMI to 53.7 from 54.2, which was already down sharply from 56.0 in May.
The composite PMI, which combines the services and manufacturing data published last week, fell to 53.3, its lowest level since October 2009.
Markit said the data suggested second quarter economic growth of 0.6 percent, slower than 0.8 percent in the first quarter. That loss of momentum does not bode well for the current quarter that just began.
"All of it together suggests that the underlying pace is slowing. It is more than the temporary slowdown the ECB has been previously advocating," said Ben May at Capital Economics.
Figures released last week showed the global manufacturing sector, a key driver of economic growth, lost steam for a second month running in June.
Despite the slowdown, central banks have turned their focus to controlling inflation, unwinding ultra-loose monetary policies adopted in the depths of the financial crisis.
Sweden's Riksbank raised rates yesterday and stuck to its forecast for further increases despite signs the economy is cooling.
Earlier data from France and Germany showed composite PMIs slipped to eight-month lows while Spain's services PMI retreated perilously close to the 50 break-even mark.
The eurozone service sector grew at its weakest pace since October with an unexpectedly deep contraction in Italy and smaller countries masked by resilience in Germany and France.
In Britain, the Markit services purchasing managers index showed growth but was not strong enough to generate any meaningful increase in employment.
The monthly surveys echoed earlier data from China, where growth in the fledgling services sector slowed slightly in June. Similarly, data due from the United States today are also expected to highlight weaker growth.
Still, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in four months on Thursday even though the PMI data provide little reason to do so.
"The rate at which growth appears to be easing off will only raise concerns that the current trend may amount to more than a usual cyclical slowdown," said Janet Henry, economist at HSBC. "We continue to expect that the ECB, following the signaled increase expected for July, will slow down the process of interest rate normalization, with the next rate rise not expected until November."
Markit revised down its June PMI to 53.7 from 54.2, which was already down sharply from 56.0 in May.
The composite PMI, which combines the services and manufacturing data published last week, fell to 53.3, its lowest level since October 2009.
Markit said the data suggested second quarter economic growth of 0.6 percent, slower than 0.8 percent in the first quarter. That loss of momentum does not bode well for the current quarter that just began.
"All of it together suggests that the underlying pace is slowing. It is more than the temporary slowdown the ECB has been previously advocating," said Ben May at Capital Economics.
Figures released last week showed the global manufacturing sector, a key driver of economic growth, lost steam for a second month running in June.
Despite the slowdown, central banks have turned their focus to controlling inflation, unwinding ultra-loose monetary policies adopted in the depths of the financial crisis.
Sweden's Riksbank raised rates yesterday and stuck to its forecast for further increases despite signs the economy is cooling.
Earlier data from France and Germany showed composite PMIs slipped to eight-month lows while Spain's services PMI retreated perilously close to the 50 break-even mark.
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