Eurozone relief after Greek default averted
Source: Agencies |
December 3, 2012, Monday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
The eurozone is in the recovery room now that the danger of a Greek default has been averted for a couple of years, but it is not yet safe from a Japanese-style "lost decade."
The currency area's escape route hinges more on the pace of expansion in the United States and China, lifting the world economy, than on the policy mix in Europe, which will continue to favor austerity over growth in 2013.
At best, Ireland and Portugal could emerge slimmed down from their bailout programs and regain capital market access by the end of the year, demonstrating that adherence to a tough fiscal adjustment plan can work.
But question marks hang over both. And Greece, like miracles, will take a little longer. And another debt writedown.
Gloomy forecasts from the OECD and private economists suggest the 17-nation euro currency area may stay in recession all next year, swelling the armies of unemployed and pushing efforts to reduce public deficits and debt mountains off track.
Political risks abound: possible social revolt against austerity policies in Greece, Spain or Portugal; a messy, inconclusive election outcome in Italy; and perhaps labor unrest against more modest structural reforms being mooted in France.
Last week's EU-IMF agreement to keep Greece afloat inside the eurozone, by reducing its debt now and hinting at official debt relief to come later, has removed the biggest risk of a financial shock that could reignite market panic and send the euro back into the emergency ward.
Market relief over the Greek deal, coupled with European Central Bank promises to do what it takes to preserve the euro, helped Italy sell its last 10-year bonds of 2012 on Thursday at the lowest yield for nearly two years.
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici called it "a turning point for the eurozone because it helps recreate stability and confidence. Greece's fate will no longer be a daily issue."
European Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier, using a soccer metaphor, said the peak of the debt crisis was over and "we are now at the start of the second half."
Some analysts are less convinced.
Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group said the Greek fix "keeps the show on the road, but is no game changer."
The campaign for Germany's general election in September means that bolder steps toward writing off debt or sharing liabilities will have to wait until at least the end of next year. Public opposition to a "transfer union" in the eurozone's biggest economy and main paymaster remains high.
Yet no Euroskeptical party has emerged to capitalize on that mood, and the next Berlin government, whether a "grand coalition" of center-right and center-left, which seems the most likely, or another permutation, may be more open to such solutions.
The European Commission has set out ambitious proposals for closer economic, fiscal and banking union, including a common eurozone fund to reward structural reforms, but most big changes will be on hold until after the German vote.
In the meantime, modest progress is likely on creating a single European banking supervisor, the first step toward a eurozone banking union, but without a joint deposit guarantee to deter capital flight and bank runs.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says swift implementation of a banking union with powers to supervise all banks in the euro area is now the top priority.
Germany will continue to press for stricter European control over budgets in eurozone states, but that will involve trade-offs with greater mutualization of risk and treaty changes that might only come after the 2014 European Parliament elections.
Many EU officials and analysts expect that Spain, which has so far avoided a sovereign bailout, will have to request eurozone assistance early in the new year, when it needs to raise at least 230 billion euros (US$300 billion) on capital markets.
That would trigger European Central Bank buying of its bonds, which might reassure investors and further reduce borrowing costs for Madrid and Italy initially.
But it would raise hackles in Germany, given the Bundesbank's continued opposition, prompting market speculation about the ECB's will and ability to sustain bond purchases.
Markus Huber, senior trader at ETXCapital, reckons that even though economic reforms and ECB reassurance have cut Italy's borrowing costs, an indecisive outcome of a general election due in April could send yields soaring again.
Rome is also at risk of contagion if Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy continues to dither and delay a eurozone credit line for Madrid, Huber said.
A more remote but much-talked-about risk is the possibility that financial markets could turn against France if French President Francois Hollande's labor market and welfare financing reforms disappoint or meet militant street resistance.
France's borrowing costs are hovering close to historic lows despite its loss of the coveted AAA credit rating from Moody's last month after Standard & Poor's downgraded Paris in January.
The currency area's escape route hinges more on the pace of expansion in the United States and China, lifting the world economy, than on the policy mix in Europe, which will continue to favor austerity over growth in 2013.
At best, Ireland and Portugal could emerge slimmed down from their bailout programs and regain capital market access by the end of the year, demonstrating that adherence to a tough fiscal adjustment plan can work.
But question marks hang over both. And Greece, like miracles, will take a little longer. And another debt writedown.
Gloomy forecasts from the OECD and private economists suggest the 17-nation euro currency area may stay in recession all next year, swelling the armies of unemployed and pushing efforts to reduce public deficits and debt mountains off track.
Political risks abound: possible social revolt against austerity policies in Greece, Spain or Portugal; a messy, inconclusive election outcome in Italy; and perhaps labor unrest against more modest structural reforms being mooted in France.
Last week's EU-IMF agreement to keep Greece afloat inside the eurozone, by reducing its debt now and hinting at official debt relief to come later, has removed the biggest risk of a financial shock that could reignite market panic and send the euro back into the emergency ward.
Market relief over the Greek deal, coupled with European Central Bank promises to do what it takes to preserve the euro, helped Italy sell its last 10-year bonds of 2012 on Thursday at the lowest yield for nearly two years.
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici called it "a turning point for the eurozone because it helps recreate stability and confidence. Greece's fate will no longer be a daily issue."
European Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier, using a soccer metaphor, said the peak of the debt crisis was over and "we are now at the start of the second half."
Some analysts are less convinced.
Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group said the Greek fix "keeps the show on the road, but is no game changer."
The campaign for Germany's general election in September means that bolder steps toward writing off debt or sharing liabilities will have to wait until at least the end of next year. Public opposition to a "transfer union" in the eurozone's biggest economy and main paymaster remains high.
Yet no Euroskeptical party has emerged to capitalize on that mood, and the next Berlin government, whether a "grand coalition" of center-right and center-left, which seems the most likely, or another permutation, may be more open to such solutions.
The European Commission has set out ambitious proposals for closer economic, fiscal and banking union, including a common eurozone fund to reward structural reforms, but most big changes will be on hold until after the German vote.
In the meantime, modest progress is likely on creating a single European banking supervisor, the first step toward a eurozone banking union, but without a joint deposit guarantee to deter capital flight and bank runs.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says swift implementation of a banking union with powers to supervise all banks in the euro area is now the top priority.
Germany will continue to press for stricter European control over budgets in eurozone states, but that will involve trade-offs with greater mutualization of risk and treaty changes that might only come after the 2014 European Parliament elections.
Many EU officials and analysts expect that Spain, which has so far avoided a sovereign bailout, will have to request eurozone assistance early in the new year, when it needs to raise at least 230 billion euros (US$300 billion) on capital markets.
That would trigger European Central Bank buying of its bonds, which might reassure investors and further reduce borrowing costs for Madrid and Italy initially.
But it would raise hackles in Germany, given the Bundesbank's continued opposition, prompting market speculation about the ECB's will and ability to sustain bond purchases.
Markus Huber, senior trader at ETXCapital, reckons that even though economic reforms and ECB reassurance have cut Italy's borrowing costs, an indecisive outcome of a general election due in April could send yields soaring again.
Rome is also at risk of contagion if Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy continues to dither and delay a eurozone credit line for Madrid, Huber said.
A more remote but much-talked-about risk is the possibility that financial markets could turn against France if French President Francois Hollande's labor market and welfare financing reforms disappoint or meet militant street resistance.
France's borrowing costs are hovering close to historic lows despite its loss of the coveted AAA credit rating from Moody's last month after Standard & Poor's downgraded Paris in January.
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