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Exports rise slightly but imports at a loss
By Wang Yanlin |
September 11, 2012, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINA'S exports recovered slightly last month but imports recorded their first loss since January, putting more pressure on the government to roll out stimulus measures.
Exports grew 2.7 percent from a year earlier to US$177.9 billion in August, up from July's 1 percent rise, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday. Imports, however, fell 2.6 percent to US$151.3 billion, a sharp fall from July's 4.7 percent growth and June's 6.3 percent increase.
They left a trade surplus of US$26.6 billion last month, compared with July's US$25.1 billion and June's US$37.1 billion.
"The sudden deceleration in imports was hardly expected," said Xue Jun, an analyst at CITIC Securities Co. "It points to steeply weakening domestic demand in China, as no new monetary stimuli have been launched since July."
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said: "Although exports stage a rebound, it is much weaker than expected and exports may fluctuate because there is little fundamental improvement in the European debt crisis."
Zhou Hao, an Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd economist, called on the government to roll out new supportive policies to stabilize growth.
"China's trade figures and other domestic indicators extends the recent economic feebleness in August," Zhou said. "To offset the external weakness, policy-makers will have to stimulate domestic demand so as to maintain the growth momentum."
He said one more cut in the reserve requirement ratio was necessary to boost liquidity in the banking system and cushion the economic slowdown.
However, rebounding inflation may become an obstacle.
The Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, ended a streak of four straight months' decline in August by expanding 2 percent, up from July's increase of 1.8 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday.
Also, growth in factory production hit a three-year low and fixed-asset investment continued to falter.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for China to fulfill its goal of 10 percent trade growth this year. In the first eight months, China's trade rose 6.2 percent year on year to US$2.49 trillion, the Customs data showed.
The surplus has accumulated to US$120.6 billion in the months to August, up 31.8 percent from a year earlier. But a report by Bank of Communications last month estimates a total trade surplus of around US$150 billion this year, less than 2011's US$155.1 due to the dismal exports outlook.
Zhou said the soft trade data also means there is little room for the yuan to appreciate further.
"We maintain our forecast that the yuan will likely trade within a band of 6.30 to 6.35 against the US dollar for the remainder of this year," Zhou said.
China's trade with the EU fell 1.9 percent year on year to US$365 billion in January-August, while deals with the US gained 9.6 percent to US$312 billion.
Demand in emerging markets continued to be relatively strong as Russia and Brazil reported their trade with China increased 14.9 percent and 6.3 percent.
Shanghai's trade rose 1 percent on an annual basis to US$289.6 billion in the first eight months, third in value after Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.
Exports grew 2.7 percent from a year earlier to US$177.9 billion in August, up from July's 1 percent rise, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday. Imports, however, fell 2.6 percent to US$151.3 billion, a sharp fall from July's 4.7 percent growth and June's 6.3 percent increase.
They left a trade surplus of US$26.6 billion last month, compared with July's US$25.1 billion and June's US$37.1 billion.
"The sudden deceleration in imports was hardly expected," said Xue Jun, an analyst at CITIC Securities Co. "It points to steeply weakening domestic demand in China, as no new monetary stimuli have been launched since July."
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said: "Although exports stage a rebound, it is much weaker than expected and exports may fluctuate because there is little fundamental improvement in the European debt crisis."
Zhou Hao, an Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd economist, called on the government to roll out new supportive policies to stabilize growth.
"China's trade figures and other domestic indicators extends the recent economic feebleness in August," Zhou said. "To offset the external weakness, policy-makers will have to stimulate domestic demand so as to maintain the growth momentum."
He said one more cut in the reserve requirement ratio was necessary to boost liquidity in the banking system and cushion the economic slowdown.
However, rebounding inflation may become an obstacle.
The Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, ended a streak of four straight months' decline in August by expanding 2 percent, up from July's increase of 1.8 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday.
Also, growth in factory production hit a three-year low and fixed-asset investment continued to falter.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for China to fulfill its goal of 10 percent trade growth this year. In the first eight months, China's trade rose 6.2 percent year on year to US$2.49 trillion, the Customs data showed.
The surplus has accumulated to US$120.6 billion in the months to August, up 31.8 percent from a year earlier. But a report by Bank of Communications last month estimates a total trade surplus of around US$150 billion this year, less than 2011's US$155.1 due to the dismal exports outlook.
Zhou said the soft trade data also means there is little room for the yuan to appreciate further.
"We maintain our forecast that the yuan will likely trade within a band of 6.30 to 6.35 against the US dollar for the remainder of this year," Zhou said.
China's trade with the EU fell 1.9 percent year on year to US$365 billion in January-August, while deals with the US gained 9.6 percent to US$312 billion.
Demand in emerging markets continued to be relatively strong as Russia and Brazil reported their trade with China increased 14.9 percent and 6.3 percent.
Shanghai's trade rose 1 percent on an annual basis to US$289.6 billion in the first eight months, third in value after Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.
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