Eyes target 'sensitive' period
By Wang Yanlin |
December 8, 2010, Wednesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
A planned weekend meeting of China's top policy makers and the release of key economic data for November present a "sensitive" period for a possible interest rate increase, according to analysts.
China will hold the annual Central Economic Work Conference this weekend, at which policy makers may explain about the shift to a prudent monetary policy in more details.
There are expectations that the People's Bank of China, the central bank, will decide to tighten policies as data for the country's inflation rate are set to be released on Monday, analysts said.
"China has announced a shift to a prudent monetary policy stance and an interest rate increase may be announced this weekend or next week," said Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.
China's Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, surged 4.4 percent from a year earlier in October, the biggest gain in 25 months. Because of inflation the real interest rate has been negative for 10 consecutive months.
Li forecast inflation to further accelerate to 5.1 percent in November, which would prompt the central bank to hike interest rates again.
Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at Industrial Bank Co, was more conservative, forecasting CPI to jump an annual 4.8 percent in November, adding that the "sensitive period for an interest rate increase may last a week."
He noted the rapid increase in prices of both food and non-food products in recent months. In October, food costs, which account for one third of the CPI basket, climbed 10.1 percent from a year earlier while non-food prices gained 1.6 percent.
The central banl in November twice raised the reserve requirement ratio to a record 18 percent. In October, it hiked the interest rate.
China will hold the annual Central Economic Work Conference this weekend, at which policy makers may explain about the shift to a prudent monetary policy in more details.
There are expectations that the People's Bank of China, the central bank, will decide to tighten policies as data for the country's inflation rate are set to be released on Monday, analysts said.
"China has announced a shift to a prudent monetary policy stance and an interest rate increase may be announced this weekend or next week," said Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.
China's Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, surged 4.4 percent from a year earlier in October, the biggest gain in 25 months. Because of inflation the real interest rate has been negative for 10 consecutive months.
Li forecast inflation to further accelerate to 5.1 percent in November, which would prompt the central bank to hike interest rates again.
Lu Zhengwei, an analyst at Industrial Bank Co, was more conservative, forecasting CPI to jump an annual 4.8 percent in November, adding that the "sensitive period for an interest rate increase may last a week."
He noted the rapid increase in prices of both food and non-food products in recent months. In October, food costs, which account for one third of the CPI basket, climbed 10.1 percent from a year earlier while non-food prices gained 1.6 percent.
The central banl in November twice raised the reserve requirement ratio to a record 18 percent. In October, it hiked the interest rate.
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