Related News
Forum offers sobering views of Chinese economy
By Wang Yanlin |
November 23, 2012, Friday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
DESPITE recent signs of economic recovery, China is under great pressure to maintain the growth momentum because of uncertainties in exports and overestimated benefits of urbanization, economists said today at the Shanghai International Private Equity Forum.
"We should avoid being too optimistic," said Shen Jianguang, managing director and chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, citing falling trade as a potential threat to China's growth next year.
Although China's exports surged 11.6 percent from a year earlier in October and 9.9 percent in September, they were bolstered mainly by Christmas factors and exports of iPhones and iPads which are mostly produced in China, Shen said.
"The United States can hardly present a decent recovery next year because its aggressive easing policies in the past few years made its economy numb to stimulus, and the European Union is no better," Shen said. "You can look at the emerging markets like Singapore, which posted a negative growth rate in the third quarter and reminded us to stay cautious."
At the China Import and Export Fair, or Canton Fair, held last month, the number of visitors fell more than 10 percent from the spring event in May, and the value of signed deals, mostly short-term orders, fell 9.3 percent, foreboding future hardship for Chinese exporters.
Li Xunlei, deputy chief executive officer and chief economist at Haitong Securities Co, said another threat comes from excessive expectation of urbanization.
"China's urbanization may not create so much consumption and investment as people expected because farmers' income has not been raised accordingly although they live an urban life," Li said.
Both economists and other speakers said the only way to sustain China's growth is to push forward political and economic reforms, limit the role of government in economic activities, and give a free rein to market forces.
"We should avoid being too optimistic," said Shen Jianguang, managing director and chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, citing falling trade as a potential threat to China's growth next year.
Although China's exports surged 11.6 percent from a year earlier in October and 9.9 percent in September, they were bolstered mainly by Christmas factors and exports of iPhones and iPads which are mostly produced in China, Shen said.
"The United States can hardly present a decent recovery next year because its aggressive easing policies in the past few years made its economy numb to stimulus, and the European Union is no better," Shen said. "You can look at the emerging markets like Singapore, which posted a negative growth rate in the third quarter and reminded us to stay cautious."
At the China Import and Export Fair, or Canton Fair, held last month, the number of visitors fell more than 10 percent from the spring event in May, and the value of signed deals, mostly short-term orders, fell 9.3 percent, foreboding future hardship for Chinese exporters.
Li Xunlei, deputy chief executive officer and chief economist at Haitong Securities Co, said another threat comes from excessive expectation of urbanization.
"China's urbanization may not create so much consumption and investment as people expected because farmers' income has not been raised accordingly although they live an urban life," Li said.
Both economists and other speakers said the only way to sustain China's growth is to push forward political and economic reforms, limit the role of government in economic activities, and give a free rein to market forces.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
