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GDP forecast to hit 10.6% in Q2
By Wang Yanlin |
July 12, 2010, Monday
|
Online Edition
Online Edition
CHINA'S economy is expected to continue a fast expansion in the second quarter, though the pace will be a bit slower than in the first three months, analysts said. But the real challenges for policy makers will emerge next year, they warned.
The gross domestic product in China may grow 10.6 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, according to an estimate by Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The projection was similar to the forecast of a 10.5-percent increase on the average by a Reuters poll.
"All 32 economists polled by Reuters predicted a moderation in China's year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, though the expansion rate could still be in the double digits," the agency said today. "This comes as no surprise because first-quarter figures were flattered by a low comparative base effect stemming from the financial crisis," it said.
Pei saw China's economic growth slowing quarter after quarter, with the expansion rate standing at 10.1 percent and 9.3 percent in the third quarter and the fourth, compared with the surge of 11.9 percent in the first three months.
"The real challenges for macroeconomic control will emerge next year," Pei said. "At that time China will have to face fading effect of stimulus while the global economy was still full of uncertainties like the sovereign debt crisis which could sap the country's trade growth."
The People's Bank of China said last week that China would continue its relatively loose monetary policy during the latter half of the year to maintain the consistency and stability of macroeconomic policies.
China's top leaders have been preparing for the challenge. Central government officials have begun a research tour to provinces such as Zhejiang and Hunan to investigate economic conditions, and preparing for the design of next year's broad economic policy.
The gross domestic product in China may grow 10.6 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, according to an estimate by Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The projection was similar to the forecast of a 10.5-percent increase on the average by a Reuters poll.
"All 32 economists polled by Reuters predicted a moderation in China's year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, though the expansion rate could still be in the double digits," the agency said today. "This comes as no surprise because first-quarter figures were flattered by a low comparative base effect stemming from the financial crisis," it said.
Pei saw China's economic growth slowing quarter after quarter, with the expansion rate standing at 10.1 percent and 9.3 percent in the third quarter and the fourth, compared with the surge of 11.9 percent in the first three months.
"The real challenges for macroeconomic control will emerge next year," Pei said. "At that time China will have to face fading effect of stimulus while the global economy was still full of uncertainties like the sovereign debt crisis which could sap the country's trade growth."
The People's Bank of China said last week that China would continue its relatively loose monetary policy during the latter half of the year to maintain the consistency and stability of macroeconomic policies.
China's top leaders have been preparing for the challenge. Central government officials have begun a research tour to provinces such as Zhejiang and Hunan to investigate economic conditions, and preparing for the design of next year's broad economic policy.
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