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German businesses project high morale
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German business morale improved in December, hitting its highest level since April 2012, another sign that growth in Europe’s largest economy may accelerate next year after a relatively subdued 2013.
Following strong ZEW and purchasing manager surveys this month, the Munich-based Ifo think tank said yesterday that its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000 firms, rose to 109.5.
That was in line with the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll but up from 109.3 in November and also followed a bullish outlook from the Bundesbank, which said earlier this week that the economy would grow strongly this quarter and next.
“Nothing can ruin German business optimism,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING.
“Unless German businesses have slowly lost touch with reality, the economy should pick up steam again and cruise smoothly into the next year.”
The ZEW survey this week showed investor sentiment hitting its highest level since April 2006 and the purchasing managers’ index showed the private sector growing for an eighth straight month. Consumer morale is also at a six-year high.
But there are question marks.
The “hard” backward-looking data collected by the German state has been generally less optimistic than privately-produced and forward-looking sentiment surveys. Industrial production, orders and retail sales have all fallen in monthly terms.
The rest of the eurozone is still struggling to get on its feet. France is all but stagnant and Italy, Spain and the bloc’s southern economies all face years of economic struggle when they will be ill-equipped to buy high-end German goods.
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