German investor outlook dims
By Geir Moulson |
August 18, 2010, Wednesday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
GERMAN investor confidence has dropped for the fourth consecutive month on worries that slowing global growth may hurt the country's export-led recovery after a spectacular second quarter, a survey showed yesterday.
The ZEW institute's confidence index, which measures professional investors' outlook for the next six months, was down to 14 points in August from 21.2 last month.
That was below the historical average of 27.3, and worse than economists' expectation of a drop to 20.
Strong export growth fueled Germany's quarter-on-quarter rise of 2.2 percent in the April-June period. That powered the 16-nation eurozone to better-than-expected growth of 1 percent.
However, sentiment that the pace will be slower in the second half has been reinforced by recent signs of slowing growth in the United States and China.
Decreasing confidence looking forward "indicates that the enormous growth observed in the second quarter is unlikely to continue," ZEW said in a statement.
"Due to Germany's dependence on exports, major risks for economic growth arise from a weak development abroad," it added.
ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said that, given signs of less dynamic global growth, "the euphoria about the growth rates in some branches makes financial market experts feel uneasy."
While their six-month outlook darkened, investors' view of Germany's current situation was much brighter. A subindex measuring that aspect rose 29.7 points on the month in August to 44.3.
The German economy contracted by 4.7 percent last year, easily its worst performance since World War II.
The second-quarter economic figures already had prompted economists to increase 2010 growth forecasts to as much as 3.5 percent.
Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle has said growth of "well over 2 percent" is possible.
"A very strong rebound for this year as a whole is a done deal," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit.
The ZEW institute's confidence index, which measures professional investors' outlook for the next six months, was down to 14 points in August from 21.2 last month.
That was below the historical average of 27.3, and worse than economists' expectation of a drop to 20.
Strong export growth fueled Germany's quarter-on-quarter rise of 2.2 percent in the April-June period. That powered the 16-nation eurozone to better-than-expected growth of 1 percent.
However, sentiment that the pace will be slower in the second half has been reinforced by recent signs of slowing growth in the United States and China.
Decreasing confidence looking forward "indicates that the enormous growth observed in the second quarter is unlikely to continue," ZEW said in a statement.
"Due to Germany's dependence on exports, major risks for economic growth arise from a weak development abroad," it added.
ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said that, given signs of less dynamic global growth, "the euphoria about the growth rates in some branches makes financial market experts feel uneasy."
While their six-month outlook darkened, investors' view of Germany's current situation was much brighter. A subindex measuring that aspect rose 29.7 points on the month in August to 44.3.
The German economy contracted by 4.7 percent last year, easily its worst performance since World War II.
The second-quarter economic figures already had prompted economists to increase 2010 growth forecasts to as much as 3.5 percent.
Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle has said growth of "well over 2 percent" is possible.
"A very strong rebound for this year as a whole is a done deal," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 沪ICP证：沪ICP备05050403号-1
- |
- 互联网新闻信息服务许可证：31120180004
- |
- 网络视听许可证：0909346
- |
- 广播电视节目制作许可证：沪字第354号
- |
- 增值电信业务经营许可证：沪B2-20120012
Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
