Global trade set to be weaker as Europe wrestles with euro crisis
Source: Agencies |
April 11, 2013, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
GLOBAL trade will be weaker than expected this year as European economies struggle with their debt crisis, and will recover only slightly in 2014, the World Trade Organization said yesterday.
The global trade body forecast in its annual report that trade would grow 3.3 percent this year, sharply less than the 4.5 percent it had earlier predicted.
That would be only a meager improvement from the 2 percent rise in 2012, a terrible year for global trade. Exports were ravaged then by the financial turmoil in the 17-country eurozone, economic aftershocks from Japan's earthquake and nuclear crisis, and the impact of political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East.
The WTO had earlier forecast a 3.7 percent rise in trade in 2012, based on what WTO economist Coleman Nee described as assumptions that the European Union was "getting its act together" financially. In fact, the debt crisis continued and remains a source of uncertainty for the bloc, the world's largest economic region.
Trade growth remains well below the 5.3 percent rate it averaged over the last 20 years, the WTO said. The figures represent the total volume of merchandise exported across borders, accounting for changes in prices and exchange rates.
Pascal Lamy, the WTO's director-general, said "the final trade numbers for 2012 are quite sobering," with developed economies notching a paltry 1 percent increase in their exports last year while shipments from developing economies expanded 3.3 percent.
"The revival of the sovereign debt crisis in the middle of the year meant that the deceleration of trade was stronger than anticipated," he said.
The disparity between developed and developing economies was still more dramatic on the import side, WTO figures show. Among developed economies, imports declined 0.1 percent in 2012, while they rose 4.6 percent among developing economies.
For 2014, Lamy said trade may rebound to "more like 5 percent growth," close to the 5.2 percent rate seen in 2011.
The recent slowdown, he said, shows that "there is a need for more rules-based trade in order to reduce unemployment and to stimulate growth."
"The threat of protectionism may be greater now than at any time since the start of the crisis, since other policies to restore growth have been tried and found wanting," Lamy added.
The global trade body forecast in its annual report that trade would grow 3.3 percent this year, sharply less than the 4.5 percent it had earlier predicted.
That would be only a meager improvement from the 2 percent rise in 2012, a terrible year for global trade. Exports were ravaged then by the financial turmoil in the 17-country eurozone, economic aftershocks from Japan's earthquake and nuclear crisis, and the impact of political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East.
The WTO had earlier forecast a 3.7 percent rise in trade in 2012, based on what WTO economist Coleman Nee described as assumptions that the European Union was "getting its act together" financially. In fact, the debt crisis continued and remains a source of uncertainty for the bloc, the world's largest economic region.
Trade growth remains well below the 5.3 percent rate it averaged over the last 20 years, the WTO said. The figures represent the total volume of merchandise exported across borders, accounting for changes in prices and exchange rates.
Pascal Lamy, the WTO's director-general, said "the final trade numbers for 2012 are quite sobering," with developed economies notching a paltry 1 percent increase in their exports last year while shipments from developing economies expanded 3.3 percent.
"The revival of the sovereign debt crisis in the middle of the year meant that the deceleration of trade was stronger than anticipated," he said.
The disparity between developed and developing economies was still more dramatic on the import side, WTO figures show. Among developed economies, imports declined 0.1 percent in 2012, while they rose 4.6 percent among developing economies.
For 2014, Lamy said trade may rebound to "more like 5 percent growth," close to the 5.2 percent rate seen in 2011.
The recent slowdown, he said, shows that "there is a need for more rules-based trade in order to reduce unemployment and to stimulate growth."
"The threat of protectionism may be greater now than at any time since the start of the crisis, since other policies to restore growth have been tried and found wanting," Lamy added.
- About Us
- |
- Terms of Use
- |
-
RSS - |
- Privacy Policy
- |
- Contact Us
- |
- Shanghai Call Center: 962288
- |
- Tip-off hotline: 52920043
- 娌狪CP璇侊細娌狪CP澶05050403鍙-1
- |
- 浜掕仈缃戞柊闂讳俊鎭湇鍔¤鍙瘉锛31120180004
- |
- 缃戠粶瑙嗗惉璁稿彲璇侊細0909346
- |
- 骞挎挱鐢佃鑺傜洰鍒朵綔璁稿彲璇侊細娌瓧绗354鍙
- |
- 澧炲肩數淇′笟鍔＄粡钀ヨ鍙瘉锛氭勃B2-20120012
Copyright 漏 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.
