Growth target may not be fulfilled
Print Edition
CHINA’S economy is expected to post a rise in exports and a rebound in industrial production in September, but the activities may not propel the third quarter to grow above the official target, according to analysts ahead of the release of key economic data next week.
“We forecast slightly better export growth,” said Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays. “It should be consistent with the modest improvement in the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) new export orders.”
Industrial production will likely rebound 7.5 percent in September, up from August’s five-year low of 6.9 percent, Chang said.
The earlier data showed the official PMI, a comprehensive gauge of operating conditions in the manufacturing sector, at 51.1 in September, still above the dividing line between expansion and decline.
The components of the official PMI showed that external demand remained resilient, with new export orders rising by 0.2 points from August to 50.2 in September, and production up 0.4 points to 53.6.
Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said investment will continue to support China’s economy as urbanization pushes forward many construction projects around the country.
Fixed-asset investment in the first three quarters may grow 16.3 percent, keeping the pace of 16.5 percent in the first eight months.
But even if China’s key economic indicators in September were positive, they would not be able to arrest the slowdown in the July-September period.
Barclays’ Chang forecast China’s third-quarter gross domestic product to expand 7.1 percent — similar to Goldman Sachs’ forecast — which is below the target of around 7.5 percent for this year set by the central government.
But China will see inflation pressure continue to fade in September as the Consumer Price Index may add 1.6 percent, compared with the increase of 2 percent in August.
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