HK slashes GDP growth estimate
Source: Bloomberg News |
00:00 UTC+8 August 11, 2012
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
HONG Kong's government yesterday cut its estimate for the city's expansion this year after the economy grew at close to the slowest pace since the financial crisis amid waning export demand from advanced nations.
Growth will probably be in a range of 1-2 percent, the government said in a statement, compared with a previous forecast of 1-3 percent. Gross domestic product rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, after a revised 0.7 percent gain in the first three months of this year.
The trade-reliant city risks further deterioration this quarter after Chinese mainland yesterday reported July export growth slowed to 1 percent. Expansion across Asia is slowing as US consumers limit spending and Europe's debt crisis continues, adding to the challenges for Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
"The mainland's stimulus measures have yet to revive growth, and given such a difficult external environment, Hong Kong's economic growth is still facing a lot of uncertainty," said Raymond Yeung, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. Yeung said he cut his full-year forecast for growth to 2.4 percent from 3.4 percent.
Second-quarter growth compared with the 1.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists. The economy contracted 0.1 percent in the second quarter from the first three months. Capital Economics cut its full-year growth forecast to 1 percent from 2 percent.
The government's new full-year growth estimate "is predicated on the assumption that Europe will continue to muddle through and the situation is largely contained," government economist Helen Chan said at a briefing. "All in all for external trade there is no ground for optimism."
Hong Kong's GDP increased 5 percent last year and 7.1 percent in 2010.
Imports and exports in June were below all forecasts in analyst surveys. Overseas sales unexpectedly fell 4.8 percent from a year earlier, and imports slipped 2.9 percent.
Growth will probably be in a range of 1-2 percent, the government said in a statement, compared with a previous forecast of 1-3 percent. Gross domestic product rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, after a revised 0.7 percent gain in the first three months of this year.
The trade-reliant city risks further deterioration this quarter after Chinese mainland yesterday reported July export growth slowed to 1 percent. Expansion across Asia is slowing as US consumers limit spending and Europe's debt crisis continues, adding to the challenges for Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
"The mainland's stimulus measures have yet to revive growth, and given such a difficult external environment, Hong Kong's economic growth is still facing a lot of uncertainty," said Raymond Yeung, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. Yeung said he cut his full-year forecast for growth to 2.4 percent from 3.4 percent.
Second-quarter growth compared with the 1.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists. The economy contracted 0.1 percent in the second quarter from the first three months. Capital Economics cut its full-year growth forecast to 1 percent from 2 percent.
The government's new full-year growth estimate "is predicated on the assumption that Europe will continue to muddle through and the situation is largely contained," government economist Helen Chan said at a briefing. "All in all for external trade there is no ground for optimism."
Hong Kong's GDP increased 5 percent last year and 7.1 percent in 2010.
Imports and exports in June were below all forecasts in analyst surveys. Overseas sales unexpectedly fell 4.8 percent from a year earlier, and imports slipped 2.9 percent.
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