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HSBC says China manufacturing growth may slow to 6-month low
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CHINA’S manufacturing sector is likely to grow at the slowest pace in six months in November, a sharp turn from the expansion last month, a survey showed yesterday.
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, the earliest available indicator of China’s industrial sector, landed at 50 in November, down from October’s final reading of 50.4.
A reading of 50 means neither expansion nor contraction. It reversed an upturn that lasted for only one month, the survey conducted by HSBC and research firm Markit showed. The October reading, which was a three-month high, accelerated from September’s 50.2.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said the components showed new export orders continued to ease and led to a below-50 reading for production.
Meanwhile, disinflationary pressures remained strong and the labor market showed further signs of weakening.
“Less price pressure and low capacity utilization point to insufficient demand in the economy,” Qu said. “Furthermore, we still see uncertainties in the months ahead from the property market and on the export front.”
China’s trade was one of the few bright spots of the economy in recent months. But in October, both exports and imports grew at a slower pace, reinforcing signs of fragility in the world’s second-largest economy.
Also, China’s Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, increased 1.6 percent last month, unchanged from a five-year low in September and indicating subdued domestic demand.
Qu said China’s growth still faces significant downward pressures, and more monetary and fiscal spending easing measures should be deployed.
China’s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than five years in the third quarter, and major activity indicators pointed at continued weakening in October after a stabilization in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
The third-quarter growth of 7.3 percent, the weakest since the first quarter of 2009, was led by the property sector and out of a high comparative base last year.
China’s economy is going through a period of adjustment as authorities try to shift it toward slower, sustainable growth, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said last week. He reiterated the “new normal” for the Chinese economy, saying it would be “running at a relatively high speed instead of super high speed.”
The International Monetary Fund expected China’s growth to be 7.4 percent this year — the slowest growth in 24 years.
China has pushed for “targeted easing policies” to bolster the economy. On Monday, the country approved the construction of another five new railway lines.
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