Hopes for climb in Chinese exports
By Wang Yanlin |
January 9, 2010, Saturday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
CHINESE exports are likely to return to a growth path in December after declining for 13 consecutive months, an economist said.
They are also optimistic about China's economic prospects for 2010 as the government will continue its relatively easy fiscal and monetary policies.
The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's key economic data, including gross domestic product, for December on January 22.
Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the low base effect when exports started its downward spiral in 2008 will provide a solid foundation for a respectable improvement in year on year comparison for the December data.
"The last batch of data for 2009 will enable us to review comprehensively how policy stimulus saved the Chinese economy from the hard landing in the first quarter of last year in the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Wang said.
"We are hopeful that exports will reclaim positive year-on-year growth in the final month of 2009, while import growth is expected to accelerate further," he said.
The government has launched various incentive measures such as tax breaks that have helped China's exports to decline at a slower pace. China's overseas shipments fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier in November, the smallest loss in 13 straight months.
With exports recovering, China's industrial production is expected to receive another boost, Wang said.
He estimated the industrial output will further expand 20 percent on an annual basis in December from a 19.2-percent increase in November.
They are also optimistic about China's economic prospects for 2010 as the government will continue its relatively easy fiscal and monetary policies.
The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's key economic data, including gross domestic product, for December on January 22.
Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the low base effect when exports started its downward spiral in 2008 will provide a solid foundation for a respectable improvement in year on year comparison for the December data.
"The last batch of data for 2009 will enable us to review comprehensively how policy stimulus saved the Chinese economy from the hard landing in the first quarter of last year in the aftermath of the global financial crisis," Wang said.
"We are hopeful that exports will reclaim positive year-on-year growth in the final month of 2009, while import growth is expected to accelerate further," he said.
The government has launched various incentive measures such as tax breaks that have helped China's exports to decline at a slower pace. China's overseas shipments fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier in November, the smallest loss in 13 straight months.
With exports recovering, China's industrial production is expected to receive another boost, Wang said.
He estimated the industrial output will further expand 20 percent on an annual basis in December from a 19.2-percent increase in November.
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