IMF trims forecasts for global output for 6th time
Print Edition
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts for global output yesterday for the sixth time since early last year, saying stronger growth in most advanced economies would fail to offset a more sluggish expansion in the developing world.
Prospects for emerging markets, long the engine of the global recovery, have dimmed somewhat with both structural and cyclical factors at play, the IMF said in its latest snapshot on the health of the global economy.
The United States is driving much of the global recovery and US output should rise further next year Ñ as long as politics do not get in the way, the IMF said, referring to a looming standoff over the nation's US$16.7 trillion debt ceiling.
For 2013, the IMF now expects global output to expand just 2.9 percent, down from its July estimate of 3.1 percent, making it the slowest year of growth since 2009. It predicted a modest pickup next year to 3.6 percent, below its July estimate of 3.8 percent.
Emerging markets still account for much of global growth, and their economies should expand nearly four times as fast this year as advanced economies. But the heady expansion some enjoyed in recent years may be a thing of the past, the IMF said.
China in particular should slow over the medium term as its economy transitions away from investment to consumption drivers. Markets no longer expect the Chinese government to step in with stimulus if growth dips below 7.5 percent, the IMF said.
Lower growth in the world’s second-largest economy could spill over to others, especially commodity exporters dependent on China’s hunger for energy.
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