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IMF's Zhu says China to avoid hard landing
By Wang Yanlin |
March 19, 2012, Monday
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Online Edition
Online Edition
INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Zhu Min said China's economy will avoid a hard landing, refuting the judgment a JPMorgan Chase & Co economist made last week.
Zhu also said the global economy may improve this year by delivering growth, but the eurozone debt crisis remains a hurdle.
"China is heading towards a soft landing," Zhu said at a conference in Hong Kong today. "The pace of China's investment remains strong even after it slowed in recent months. But the long-term inflationary pressure is still a concern."
China's gross domestic product growth moderated to 8.9 percent in the final quarter of last year, the slowest in two and a half years. The official data also showed China's industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all weakened in the first two months, and property prices continued to fall in most of the nation's biggest cities.
Adrian Mowat, chief Asian and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, concluded last Thursday that China is already in a so-called economic hard landing, citing less car sales, less cement and steel production as well as falling construction stocks.
However, not many economists agreed.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said earlier that China's economic soft landing is for certain if the government can adjust policies in accordance with changing situations.
Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said China's economic growth may slow to 8.2 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, and that is likely the bottom.
"A rebound in fixed investment, including in social housing and infrastructure, can push up the economy," Wang said. "For 2012 as a whole, we expect GDP growth to stay at 8.5 percent."
Zhu also said the global economy may improve this year by delivering growth, but the eurozone debt crisis remains a hurdle.
"China is heading towards a soft landing," Zhu said at a conference in Hong Kong today. "The pace of China's investment remains strong even after it slowed in recent months. But the long-term inflationary pressure is still a concern."
China's gross domestic product growth moderated to 8.9 percent in the final quarter of last year, the slowest in two and a half years. The official data also showed China's industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all weakened in the first two months, and property prices continued to fall in most of the nation's biggest cities.
Adrian Mowat, chief Asian and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, concluded last Thursday that China is already in a so-called economic hard landing, citing less car sales, less cement and steel production as well as falling construction stocks.
However, not many economists agreed.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said earlier that China's economic soft landing is for certain if the government can adjust policies in accordance with changing situations.
Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said China's economic growth may slow to 8.2 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, and that is likely the bottom.
"A rebound in fixed investment, including in social housing and infrastructure, can push up the economy," Wang said. "For 2012 as a whole, we expect GDP growth to stay at 8.5 percent."
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